Caste shift in Indian politics: Census, reservations, focus on OBCs

One of the discernible challenges facing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha (LS) election is the ‘rebirth of Mandal politics’ or ‘Mandal 2.0’, as commentators describe the resurgence of the stormy late 1980s and early 1990s when the empowerment of the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) overshadowed North India’s politics.

The challenge has shape-shifted from the demand for reservation in education and jobs to the clamour for a national caste census, which would provide an exact figure on the OBC population in all sub-groupings.

Notably, the Opposition, particularly the Congress, has spearheaded this phase of OBC politics.

The trigger for the Opposition’s call was a Bihar government caste survey that put the state’s OBC population, including the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), at 63.1 per cent and the general category of the upper castes at 15.5 per cent.

Subsequent data on social, economic, and educational conditions, released by the Patna dispensation, revealed that the number of poor families among the OBCs was 33.16 per cent, 33.58 per cent among the EBCs, and 42.93 per cent among the Dalits and tribes, as compared with 25.09 per cent in the general category.

Although the findings nailed certain established beliefs about the plight of the OBCs and Dalits, they gave a fresh impetus to the Opposition’s campaign aimed at uniting the disparate OBCs and EBCs into a front to combat the BJP’s strategy to consolidate Hindus as a pan-religious grouping.

Is the Opposition’s premise facile?

Since the 1990s, when politics was caught in the Mandal-Mandir polemic, the BJP has worked on intertwining the two strands to demonstrate that there is no contradiction between faith and OBC empowerment.

It targeted the OBCs in the Hindi heartland through rhetoric, policies, and schemes, as well as the promise of augmented representation for every sub-caste in the power structures, most of which were fulfilled.

The BJP made the OBCs as politically visible and influential as the Mandal offspring, if not more.

Evidence from the surveys conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and Lokniti suggests that the BJP succeeded in penetrating the vast swathe of the less dominant OBCs more effectively than the heartland’s regional parties by harping on the perception that they were “neglected” by the well-off castes and denied their justifiable power share.

In the 2019 election, the BJP secured 40 per cent of votes from the better-off OBCs and 48 per cent from the EBCs, a gain from 30 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, in 2014.

That the BJP shed the ‘Brahmin-Baniya’ tag is evident in other statistics.

In the present LS, of its 301 Members of Parliament (MPs), 113 are OBCs, 53 are Dalits, and 43 are Adivasis, making up the bulk of the overall representation.

“But we can’t be complacent. Every challenge must be answered, and we are thinking up answers,” a Bihar BJP leader said.

Rajya Sabha MP K Laxman, who heads the BJP’s OBC cell, said, “We believe in the politics of development, which is also mindful of social justice. This is the reason we granted constitutional status to the OBC Commission.”

Asked why the Centre did not sanction a national caste census, he said, “We are not against it, but there are certain technical issues, legal constraints, and administrative problems. The OBC classification varies from state to state; the sub-castes are not homogeneous. Reddys and Choudharys are OBCs in Karnataka but not in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. States have the power to include castes in the OBC list depending on socio-economic conditions. But a national census will entail research and scientific study.”

Guru Prasad Maurya, a member of the central OBC cell and an Uttar Pradesh legislator, said, “The BJP stands for welfare for all and reservation for the OBCs. We have an OBC Prime Minister. The Opposition is frustrated because we’ve taken away most of the OBC votes.”

With an unrelenting Opposition, the BJP was forced to rethink its position, from evading an answer on the Bihar survey to endorsement.

At a public meeting in Bihar, Home Minister Amit Shah stated, “But Chief Minister (CM) Nitish Kumar should remember that when the decision to conduct the caste survey was taken, the BJP was part of the BJP-Janata Dal (United) coalition state government.”

Among the measures that the BJP took right away were Shah’s announcement in Telangana that if voted to power, his party would appoint an OBC as its CM.

The backstory lay in the sudden replacement of Bandi Sanjay Kumar as the Telangana BJP president with central minister Gangapuram Kishan Reddy. Kumar, an OBC leader, had mobilised the community’s votes, which reportedly felt let down. As a ‘corrective’, Kumar was inducted into the central party apparatus as a general secretary and given a ticket from Karimnagar in the Assembly polls. He is a star campaigner in Telangana, where the BJP has fielded nearly 40 OBC candidates.

In Haryana, Om Prakash Dhankar, a Jat, made way for Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC, as the state president.

In Maharashtra, the BJP revived the MADHAV formula, focusing on regrouping support from the OBC Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari (Banjar) communities in the footsteps of the Vanjari leader, the late Gopinath Pandurang Munde.

On his part, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Vishwakarma Yojana this year in his August 15 speech to fund artisans and craftspeople from the EBCs working with their hands and traditional tools. At the same time, the BJP cannot lose sight of its primary support coming from the upper castes.

The party will have to do a balancing act.

OF CASTING VOTES & COUNTING IDENTITIES: THE OBC QUANDARY

Opposition checkmate: Countering Other Backward Class (OBC) outreach, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strategically positions itself for a decisive caste census

Leadership pledge: Amit Shah’s commitment to an OBC chief minister for Telangana signifies a bold paradigm shift

Leadership shuffle: Dynamic transformation in Haryana as Jat leader Om Prakash Dhankar steps aside for OBC Nayab Singh Saini as the state president

Regional renaissance: Maharashtra’s political revival with the MADHAV formula, focusing on OBC Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari (Banjar) communities

Commission’s twist: The Justice G Rohini Commission’s report on OBC quota sub-categorisation adds intricacy to the political landscape

Crafting futures: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vishwakarma Yojana empowers Extremely Backward Class (EBC) artisans and craftspeople, shaping a promising future

Vote surge: BJP’s 2019 Lok Sabha (LS) triumph secures a 40% vote share from better-off OBCs and 48% from EBCs, marking an increase from 30% and 43%, respectively, in 2014

Diversity spotlight: The present LS boasts 113 OBC Members of Parliament, 53 Dalits, and 43 Adivasis out of 301, painting a picture of diverse representation