While expressing confidence in the Indian economy, Narayan pointed out that the country’s energy import bill, which puts pressure on the rupee, affects dollar returns for investors.
India remains an attractive market, but currency depreciation has affected returns in dollar terms, Narayan said. “As long as India continues to diversify away to renewable sources of energy, for which I think they're doing a good job, this pressure will ultimately ease. It is the fastest-growing major economy in the world; there’s no doubt about that,” he said.
India’s achievements in reforms over the past 10 years give hope, whether in digitisation or in creating and upgrading infrastructure, he said.
“What is destroying India returns today is the depreciation of the rupee. Why is the rupee depreciating? It’s because of your import of energy. As long as that diversification process into renewables remains active, you will be fine. And the world is a relative place,” Narayan added.
The perpetual port concessions favoured by Narayan would mark a significant departure from the current practice of granting concessions for periods of up to 30 years. “Why not JVs (joint ventures)? The government becomes a landlord, you have an operator, you agree on key performance indicators…It's forever, until I break your trust. What's the problem?” he said, questioning the practice of regularly re-tendering projects and appointing new operators.
Through its five terminals, DP World handles a quarter of India’s container trade. Four of its facilities -- Nhava Sheva International Container Terminal (NSICT, also India’s first PPP port terminal), Nhava Sheva India Gateway Terminal (NSIGT), Mundra International Container Terminal (MICT) and Chennai Container Terminal (CCT) -- will see their concession periods end by 2031.
The company has been in talks with the Union government and the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA), the landlord for its NSICT and NSIGT facilities, to extend the concessions for these terminals. Narayan believes that 30 years is not enough time to develop a project from the ground up and ensure its continuous upgrade.
“Just look at the life cycle. It takes you three years to build, four years to stabilise. So year eight or nine is when you are on reasonable levels of utilisation. Now you have 20 years left. Will you invest again? Will you keep upgrading? Will you keep modernising? Finished. There’s not enough time,” Narayan said.
He added that the current framework, under which the authority takes a 20-40 per cent share of revenue from the operator, controls tariffs and builds competing capacity nearby, destroys value immediately.
Narayan also said India is emerging as one of DP World’s more prominent markets, with an investment pipeline of $5 billion. The company has about $40 billion in invested capital globally, of which $2.5 billion is already invested in India.
As India pursues one of its most ambitious and contentious projects -- a ₹48,000 crore mega transhipment terminal at Galathea Bay on Great Nicobar Island -- Narayan warned that the country should aim to be a gateway rather than a transhipment hub.
“Because the benefits of transshipment don't come into the economy. There's minimal trickle-down. The transshipment benefits only lie in shipping line accounts. Let them build their transshipment points,” he said.
The project has been at the centre of a political storm, amid allegations that it breaches environmental protection obligations and threatens the island’s indigenous tribal population.