Anybody's game

Will the results of the state polls have some bearing on the 2019 general elections?

The Congress’s joy at its thumping victory in three states this week was tempered by the realisation that the all-important chief minister’s post did not have a clear pick in any of the three states.

While Chhattisgarh did not even have a nationally recognisable face that could lead the government, in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the problem was one of plenty. In the latter state, especially, things seemed to have gone south for the party pretty quickly, as the euphoria of the victory transformed into distress and even violence at whether Sachin Pilot or Ashok Gehlot would become the chief minister.

Rahul Gandhi, keen to trumpet his democratic credentials, opted to ask the public their choice via a website link, a fraught exercise in our setup both constitutionally and practically. It is the MLAs’ right to choose their leader and one can argue that an online poll can point to, but should not decide, the leader of a state government.

Besides, when power flows from closeness to the leader, starting from the Gandhi family right down to the regional satraps, incidents like those being witnessed in Rajasthan are no surprise. What is surprising is that Gandhi thought that a token gesture like an online poll could  yield results in our animated polity.

The incidents of this week are tied up with the broader question of whether the state polls will have some bearing on the 2019 general elections. On counting day, it became clear that going into 2019, the BJP will be on the backfoot, even as its opponents conceded that the national elections are an entirely different ballgame.

Indeed, some analysts pointed out that the party’s performance would have been worse in the absence of the rallies that Prime Minister Narendra Modi meticulously spearheaded in the three heartland states. The full picture will only emerge later but the general consensus on Modi’s popularity remains.

What may be more interesting to chart is the Opposition’s ability to come up with a united front. The BJP has fought recent elections with a clear face, even when this strategy backfired as it did in Delhi with Kiran Bedi. The turmoil in the Congress this week is likely to be repeated in the larger Opposition camp next year when the time to choose a prime ministerial candidate nears.

Will the Opposition rally around Gandhi? The past does not inspire confidence. The BSP, which had refused to tie up with the Congress in MP before the elections, agreed to go along with the party “with a heavy heart” to make up the numbers. Regional leaders would rather give up the Treasury benches altogether than play second fiddle.

The situation points to another advantage that the BJP enjoys in this sphere. It is true that power within the party has become concentrated in the Modi era, but to suggest that this has meant a diminishing of the RSS’s influence would be naïve. From Yogi Adityanath to Ram Madhav, key RSS players continue to hold important positions in the party.

It is the cadre-like nature of this setup — both Yogi and Madhav are from non-political backgrounds — that instils a discipline to the BJP the dynastic parties lack. The Congress was keen to attribute this week’s victories to the rising influence of Rahul Gandhi, an arguable point insofar as it tells us little about his ability to pull off a national upset.

And if the choice of leader will remain dependent on who is close to whom, who is related to whom and who can marshal supporters to create enough chaos, then this does not bode well for fighting a national election with a prime ministerial face. If the Congress finds it difficult to get its own house in order, imagine the state of affairs when myriad parties are in the fray.

What does all this mean for the BJP? The party cannot rest on its laurels — agricultural distress has been identified as a key reason farmers voted for the Congress in the states. The Prime Minister may have earned kudos for his schemes aimed at the grassroots but unless farmers get a decent return for their produce and have the safety of insurance, none of this will matter.

The biggest lesson by far from this week’s events, though, may lie in the sagacity of the Indian voter. If a political analyst ever made the mistake of looking upon India’s political future, even a sliver of it, in certain terms, he would be disabused of such notions the moment the man on the street enters the polling booth. 

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