Ad spends to grow only 2% in 2009: Pitch-Madison study

After a double-digit growth for over a decade, the Pitch-Madison Media Advertising Outlook 2009 report paints a bleak picture for media owners this year.

While the overall advertising industry grew 17 per cent to touch Rs 20,717 crore in 2008, it is projected to increase a mere 2 per cent in 2009, according to the study which will be released early next week.

The silver lining is that a consistent good performance by fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector may help advertising to some extent, while the approaching general elections should help the cause of press, which despite this is expected to remain flat. However, cinema and outdoor advertising are expected to de-grow in 2009.

Sam Balsara, Chairman and Managing Director, Madison World, said: “Though disappointing, we are hoping that sentiment will change over the next few months enabling us to revise our forecast. This year for the first time we hope to do a mid-year update. Advertising is driven largely by sentiment. Optimism and confidence in the future are big drivers of advertising growth.”

The previous year’s study had forecast the advertising spend in 2008, to be Rs 21,314 crore, a 20 per cent growth over 2007. But a slowdown in the second half of 2008 has led to an overall lower growth rate of 17 per cent. Last year’s 17 per cent growth is substantially lower than the 22 per cent growth achieved in each of the previous two years.

Print and TV continue to dominate the advertising market with a combined share of around 88 per cent. The estimated Rs 9,800 crore advertising market for the print medium grew 16 per cent in 2008 while the around Rs 8,300 crore TV ad market grew 17 per cent during the same period. The estimated Rs 660 crore radio market witnessed the sharpest growth of 38 per cent in 2008.

 

Medium	Advt market  in Rs cr (2008 estimates)	Growth (%)	Share (%)
Press	9,825	16	47.4
TV	8,319	17	40.2
Radio	662	38	3.2
Cinema	129	24	0.6
Outdoor	1,419	11	6.8
Internet	363	45	1.7
TOTAL	20,717	17	100
Source: Pitch-Madison 2008 estimates

Print continues to hold the largest share of pie at 47 per cent, although print did seem to loose steam in second half of 2008 and lost 1 per cent share compared to 2007. TV is a close no. 2 with 41 per cent of the advertising pie and has gained a 1 per cent share in 2008 compared to 2007.

Outdoor, in 2008 grew by 11 per cent, substantially lower than previous year’s growth rate of 28 per cent. Internet, though on a very small base, grew at 45 per cent and has now reached a respectable size of Rs 363 crore. Radio registered a robust growth of 38 per cent in 2008, having grown by 68 per cent the previous year.