Here's what brokerages expect from TVS Motors' Q2FY21 numbers

TVS Motors is scheduled to announce its September quarter results of FY21 (Q2FY21) on Thursday and analysts are expecting a sub 10 per cent increase in the company's revenues on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, led by volume de-growth.

According to the monthly sales data, TVS Motors sold 8.67 lakh units in Q2FY21, including 8.34 lakh 2-wheelers and 33,488 3-wheelers. In comparison, the company had sold 8.85 lakh units in the year-ago quarter.

At the bourses, shares of TVS Motors rose 14.78 per cent during the September quarter as compared to 9 per cent gain in the S&P BSE Sensex, ACE Equity data show.

Here's a quick look at what leading brokerages expect from TVS Motors' September quarter nos.

Nomura

The brokerage expects TVS Motors to report 8 per cent YoY growth in revenue at Rs 4,684.2 crore as compared to Rs 4347.8 crore reported in Q2FY20. Meanwhile, net profit is seen slipping 6 per cent at Rs 185.2 crore against Rs 196.8 crore in the year-ago period.

"Ebitda margin is likely to have declined 30 bps YoY to 8.5 per cent on higher commodity prices, BS-6 costs partly offset by cost control. Ebitda is likely to come in at Rs 398.6 crore," it said.

Prabhudas Lilladher

According to Prabhudas Lilladher, with volumes declining around 2 per cent YoY (up 225 per cent QoQ) coupled with growth in expected realization by around 11 per cent YoY, TVS Motors' Q2FY21 revenue is likely to grow 8.7 per cent YoY to Rs 4,724.6 crore. The bottom line is seen growing 19.5 per cent YoY to Rs 213.9 crore.

"We expect positive operating leverage to partially offset the impact of higher raw material cost, resulting in EBITDA margins to decline 20bps YoY at 8.6 per cent. Ebitda for the quarter is likely at Rs 408.6 crore, up 7 per cent YoY against Rs 382 crore," it said.

Nirmal Bang

Analysts at Nirmal Bang expect higher depreciation and tax rate to affect TVS Motors' Q2 earnings, and, as a result, are building around 4 per cent increase in TVS Motors' Q2 revenue at Rs 4,515.7 crore while profit after tax is seen contracting 13.2 per cent YoY to Rs 155.4 crore.

"Price increase on BS-VI products, partially offset by deteriorating mix (lower 3Ws and higher Moped share) is expected to lead to around 6 per cent YoY growth in average selling price (ASP). Adverse product mix and limited BS-VI pass-through will be partially offset by tight cost control, leading a negative impact on margin which is seen at 7.8 per cent against 8.8 per cent in the year-ago quarter," the brokerage said.

BP Wealth

BP Wealth, meanwhile, expects TVS Motors to report revenue of Rs 4,519.3 crore for the quarter under review while PAT is seen contracting to Rs 153.9 crore, led by decline in volumes.

According to the brokerage, adverse product mix and limited BS-VI pass-on will be partially offset by tight cost control will lead to a negative impact at Ebitda level, which is expected to slip to Rs 352.8 crore. Ebitda margins are expected to fall by 380 bps to 7.8 per cent.