Quarterly results, inflation rate to determine trajectory of equity indices

The upcoming quarterly results season, along with the release of macroeconomic data points on industrial production and inflation, are expected to determine the trajectory of key equity indices next week.

According to market observers, global cues such as concerns over trade protectionist measures between the US and China, combined with the direction of foreign fund flows and crude oil prices, will also impact investors' risk-taking appetite.

"On the domestic front, the inflation, IIP and trade deficit data would be closely watched, especially after the growth forecasts offered by RBI (Reserve Bank of India) in its policy," Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.

"The earnings season begins next week with Infosys being the first large-cap company to declare its quarterly numbers, the numbers will set the tone for the sector."

The Q4 earnings result season will kick off from next week. IT major Infosys is expected to be the first bluechip firm to come out with its Q4 result on April 13.

Apart from the Q4 results, investors will look out for the upcoming macroeconomic data points such as the IIP (Index of Industrial Production) and the Balance of Trade figures.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macroeconomic data points of IIP and CPI (Consumer Price Index) on April 12.

On the global front, fears over the further imposition of trade protectionist measures between the US and China can unleash volatility.

"Market participants would closely watch each development on the trade war between the US and China," D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director of SMC Investments and Advisors, told IANS.

"However, decreasing inflation, accelerating growth and an economy that relies on domestic consumption is expected to remain less affective from the escalating trade war between the US and China. Market is expected to remain volatile going forward tracking global cues."

On technical levels, the underlying trend of the National Stock Exchange's (NSE) Nifty50 remains bullish.

"Technically, the Nifty is now in an uptrend and further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 10,350 points is taken out," said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.

"Crucial supports to watch for any weakness is at 10,208 points."

Last week, the key Indian equity indices -- the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty50 -- rose for the second consecutive week due to prospects of normal monsoon rains, lower inflation and a positive growth outlook.

Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE gained a massive 658.29 points or almost 2 per cent to close at 33,626.97 points.

Similarly, the wider Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) made healthy gains. It closed trade at 10,331.60 points -- up 217.9 points or 2.15 per cent from its previous week's close.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

--IANS

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