Shock and awe: Headline grabbers from India and the World

In the second instalment of our 2016 retrospective, Business Standard recaps a year that stood out for serial tremors in local and global politics — from ‘surgical strikes’ and Jayalalithaa’s death to Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US polls and Brexit.

Surgical strike across the Line of Control

Beyond a boundary

Surgical strike: It is the latest metaphor for bold and courageous action but without thinking it through. On September 29, India did something it has never openly dared to do: It crossed the Line of Control (LoC), surprising not just the world but itself, by breaching its own docile tolerance levels. A posse of soldiers crossed into Pakistani territory, levelled camps used as staging posts by infiltrators and returned without any damage to its own side. 

Before the surgical strikes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had told Army Chief Dalbir Singh that he did not want any casualties on the Indian side and no vertical escalation.  The strikes have been widely celebrated in the country though how much traction they will get as a campaign tool in the forthcoming Assembly elections is a matter of speculation. The political objectives to deter Pakistan from its indulgence in infiltration and cross-border terrorism and raising costs for the deep state have not been achieved. In his book, Choices: Inside the Making of India’s Foreign Policy, former National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon has said that after 26/11 Mumbai, he pressed for immediate military retaliation either against LeT in Muridke in Punjab or against their camps in PoK or against the Inter-Services Intelligence because it would have been “emotionally satisfying”. The modest surgical strikes, it is clear, were ordered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for political and emotional satisfaction without consideration for the likely tangible gains that might accrue in curbing cross-border attacks: Which are negative. The offensive action has shown Modi as a “strong” leader, unafraid to strike back at Pakistan. But, will cross-border terrorism end as a result? Hardly.

Aditi Phadnis

Mamata Banerjee wins

Didi returns

Narada, Saradha, a syndicate expose, a flyover collapse, nothing could keep Mamata Banerjee, known locally as Didi (or big sister), from delivering a monumental win in the Assembly elections.

Her Trinamool Congress (TMC), bettered its performance; in 2011, it had won 184 seats in the Assembly elections; this time, it bagged 212. 

Banerjee’s win seemed certain three months before the elections. But mid-March, the Narada news portal released video footage that showed MLAs, MPs and ministers from the TMC allegedly accepting cash for favours to a fictitious company. 

Narada managed to rake up memories of the Saradha chit fund scam that was long forgotten. The Saradha scam, involving some TMC leaders, came to light in 2013, when the money pooling group, which had collected Rs 2,000-Rs 3,000 crore, collapsed. 

But even as Trinamool was battling these demons, the Vivekananda flyover collapsed, taking down 26 people. The 2.2 km elevated road was conceived by the Left Front government, but the work continued during the TMC regime and major design flaws went unnoticed.

The accident also brought to the fore the “syndicate raj”, an extortion racket run by unemployed youth primarily affiliated allegedly to the ruling party, to force inferior materials on developers at a premium. Yet when the election results were announced, it was Banerjee’s critics who had to eat humble pie.

Ishita Ayan Dutt

Jayalalithaa’s death

Strength of a woman

It is official now that 597 people either died or killed themselves when they heard the news that Jayalalithaa, chief minister of Tamil Nadu, had died. What kind of people were they ? More to the point, what kind of a leader was Jayalalithaa to elicit this kind of reaction?

She became Tamil Nadu chief minister in 1991 after the death of her mentor M G Ramachandran and the division of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Her first term as chief minister saw her take two important steps. She said after she became chief minister: “It is my firm conviction that a woman should marry only if she wants to raise a family, not simply because she needs a man to support her”. Some 100,000 women were given entrepreneurship training so that they could set up their own small industries. Female infanticide was prevalent in many pockets of Tamil Nadu. So Jayalalithaa launched the cradle baby scheme: If families did not want girl babies, they were invited to leave them in cradles placed outside social welfare centres, no questions asked. The government adopted and brought up these babies. A fixed deposit of Rs 5,000 was placed in the adopted child’s name and when the child attained 18 years of age, she received Rs 20,000. 

Jayalalithaa also launched all-women police stations. “It had been brought to my notice that women were suffering untold persecution and cruelty in their homes but very often they were reluctant to go to complain to a police station, manned entirely by men. So I first started one all-women police station in Madras. It became so popular that I ended up opening 57 such police stations all over the state” she said, at a conference. Jayalalithaa’s talent lay in appealing to women without alienating the men, principally because she also launched many schemes that included them — subsidised canteens and dispensaries among them. Little wonder, then, that after her death, the AIADMK is keen to have another woman as the leader.

No one is talking about the seamier side of Jayalalithaa’s three terms as CM: The corruption, the use of the state apparatus to punish political rivals, the trampling of human rights in Tamil Nadu. And yet, it cannot be denied that Tamil Nadu is one of the most urbanised and industrialised states where it is easiest to do business. Will her successors rule with the same verve? Unlikely, though 2017 will tell the story.

Aditi Phadnis

The rise of Kanhaiya Kumar

Teachable moments for 'Azadi'

On February 11, when the outrage against “anti-nationals” was at its peak, a little-known student, Kanhaiya Kumar, who was also the president of the Jawaharlal Nehru University Students Union, came out of the Registrar’s office and addressed a small gathering of students with the intent of exposing the hypocrisy of the JNU administration, which, in his view, was politically biased towards the Union government. It was a searing speech and it pitchforked Kumar from the anonymity of JNU’s reclusive environs to national, and even international, acclaim. It might have also launched his political career. Looking back, that speech still sparkles with its pungent yet cogent critique not just of the role universities play in a nation’s existence but also of the growing strain of illiberality that has been afflicting India. Kumar, son of an Anganwadi worker, elucidated how public universities such as JNU, which are run on taxpayers’ money, are supposed to conduct a “critical analysis of the society’s collective conscience”. And that if they “fail in this duty, there would be no nation… just a grazing ground for the rich…” But he did not stop there. He went on to explicate the various injustices that plague India’s social fabric. A day later he was arrested on charges of sedition and sent to Tihar. Three weeks later he was set free and came back to sing what for many became a new national anthem — “Azaadi!”

Udit Misra

The Kashmir debacle

Back to the future?

India-Pakistan relations are at their lowest point in recent memory. No wonder the unrest in Kashmir is at its worst, too.  The death of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, the chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir and the father of current incumbent Mehbooba Mufti, in early 2016, led to a slide in the administration of the state which has yet to recover. In parallel, the infiltration attempt in Gurdaspur, the killing of 21-year old Kashmiri militant leader Burhan Wani, the infiltration into the Pathankot air base and the near freeze in relations with Pakistan: It is not just the National Democratic Alliance government’s policies in Kashmir but also its policy in Pakistan that is being questioned.

Is Kashmir a law and order issue or is there a bigger political grievance over which the governments — both at the Centre and in the state — are in denial? 

The real issue through the year has been one of leadership of the state: Who will lead? Who should lead? The militant narrative continues to occupy mindspace. But the nationalists have won an undeniable victory in Jammu. These two have always been two parallel lines but the gap between them has widened significantly after Burhan Wani’s killing.

The fact is Wani was a young romantic leader who had limited but fervent followers because he could have developed as a challenge to the existing militant/separatist leaders such as Yaseen Malik and the gerontocracy of the Hurriyat. In his death, those in Kashmir who bitterly resent the occupation of orchards and schools by the coercive apparatus of the Indian state — the army, the paramilitary forces and others — saw a death blow to their movement. The rage of the people spilled out into the open and everything that represented the Indian state became a target, including government-run schools. It did not help that Mehbooba Mufti, new chief minister, took an unconscionably long time to come to grips with the situation.

Indo-Pakistan relations, which are deeply influenced by happenings in Kashmir, have been described as a game of snake and ladders — with very few ladders. Around this time last year, Prime Minister Modi was paying a social visit to Raiwind to attend a wedding in Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s family. He can’t even start thinking about any such gestures in the prevailing atmosphere. But then, as the song goes:  Woh subah kabhi to aayegi (the dawn will come one day).

Aditi Phadnis

Rohith Vemula's suicide

Anti-national angst

On January 17, Rohith Vemula, a 26-year-old Dalit scholar at Hyderabad Central University (HCU), was found hanging in a hostel room on campus. He — along with four other research scholars — had been suspended and their scholarships stopped by the university authorities in August 2015, after they were accused of “anti-national activities” and of assaulting a student leader of the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad. In his suicide note, he wrote: “I always wanted to be a writer. A writer of science, like Carl Sagan. I loved Science, Stars, Nature...”

His death sparked student and Dalit protests across the country, which soon snowballed into a vicious debate on nationalism. In Parliament, the Opposition attacked the government after it came to light that Vemula was suspended when Union Human Resource Development Minister Smriti Irani forwarded a letter, written by Union Minister of State for Labour Bandaru Dattareya, to the HCU vice-chancellor. Irani responded with histrionics, which earned the government more brickbats.

The Dalit movement has become stronger and more vocal over the year, with more caste outrages coming to light. Now, it is likely to play a bigger part in electoral politics. 

Uttaran Das Gupta

Chetan Chauhan appointed head of NIFT

Power play in fashion

Barely six months after Film and Television Institute of India (FTII) students ended their 139-day strike against the appointment of Narendra Modi acolyte Gajendra Chauhan as chairman of the governing council, the government did a double. In June this year, it made the most unlikely possible appointment as head of the prestigious National Institute of Fashion Technology: Chetan Chauhan, a moderately talented former member of the Indian cricket team and a two-time Bharatiya Janata Party MP. The choice of Gajendra Chauhan for FTII had a slim justification in that the actor had a passing connection with the audio-visual medium — he played Yudhisthira in Doordarshan’s serialisation of Mahabharata —but Chetan Chauhan’s appointment stumped everyone. The fact that his only qualifications for the job were his connections with the ruling party escaped no one. The appointment also violated the terms of the NIFT Act, 2006, under which the chairperson of the Board of Governors is expected to be “an eminent academician, scientist or technologist or professional, to be nominated by the Visitor” of the institute, which is the President. The cricketer himself does not seem to consider this three-year appointment a big deal. He has clarified that he will spent 30 per cent of his time on NIFT and 60 per cent on his current role as head of the Delhi cricket board and he was, without irony, modest about his fashion sense. Predictably, the blogosphere exploded with ironic comment. Here is one tweet that best expresses the general mood: “After Gajendra Chauhan for FTII, Chetan Chauhan for NIFT, abt time we made Annu Kapoor the head of ISRO.”

Kanika Datta

Prohibition in Bihar

Arrested development

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar fulfilled his election promise by banning the sale and consumption of liquor in the state. On April 1, his government banned country liquor, extending it to all alcohol in a month. In 2007, the then National Democratic Alliance government headed by Nitish had opened country liquor shops in villages, filling the treasury by Rs 4,000 crore annually. The Bihar Excise (Amendment) Act, 2016, was draconian: Its violation is a non-bailable offence. Law enforcement agents can arrest people merely on suspicion. Adult members of a house, where liquor had been consumed, could be arrested even if they hadn’t taken part in the Bacchanalian rites.

The law was challenged in courts. On September 30, the Patna High Court quashed it. The government responded by notifying a new law on October 2 (Gandhi Jayanti). It also challenged the high court order in the Supreme Court, which, on October 7, stayed it.  

Prohibition, which now threatens to fill up the jails in the state, has won Nitish Kumar some accolades among a vote bank he has cultivated over a decade: Rural women. Not satisfied with pushing abstinence in Bihar, the chief minister has taken the message to other states, with little or no success. Whether or not it will be his vehicle to the national stage in 2019 remains to be seen.   

Uttaran Das Gupta

The Rio Olympics

Women on top

India’s customary Olympic gloom — this time in Rio de Janeiro — was somewhat brightened by the stupendous showings of two unassuming women: P V Sindhu and Sakshi Malik. Sindhu, a two-time medallist at the World Badminton Championships, strung together an imperious, giant-slaying streak that saw her reach the gold medal match in the women’s singles. Much to the despair of Indian fans, however, the 21-year-old from Hyderabad had to settle for silver, imploding in the final after winning the first game against world number one Carolina Marin. Sindhu became only the second Indian shuttler to win an Olympic medal — the first being Saina Nehwal at London 2012. 

Malik’s march to bronze in the 58 kg category of women’s freestyle wrestling was equally emphatic. For the Rohtak grappler, who lost to eventual champion, Valeria Koblova, in the quarter-final, redemption arrived in the form of the repechage medal playoff. Pitted against the more formidable Aisuluu Tynybekova of Kyrgyzstan, the 24-year-old, much to the astonishment of her opponent and the crowd, overturned a 0-5 deficit to prevail 8-5. The sight of Tynybekova beating the mat in disbelief was one of the standout moments of Rio 2016. 

The two ladies’ career trajectories, however, have been vastly different since that mystical month of August. Malik announced her engagement to fellow wrestler, Satyawart Kadian, soon after Rio, and has stayed off the mat since. Sindhu, on the other hand, has been steadily climbing up the world rankings, winning the China Open in November, and following that up with another podium finish at the Hong Kong Open. Hopefully, 2017 will bring more medals for both these remarkable women.

Dhruv Munjal

Donald Trump wins the White House

The Donald trumps the odds

On November 8, Donald Trump, the realty billionaire and reality TV star, shocked the world, defied the supposedly scientific opinion polls and surprised himself by registering one of the most stunning upsets in the US presidential elections, defeating Democrat challenger Hillary Clinton’s bid to become the United States’ first female President. It was a decisive victory, with 304 electoral college votes to Clinton’s 227, with several Red states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania turning Blue, amid sensational intelligence agency claims that Russian hackers had sought to influence the elections. The fact that he lost the popular vote at 46.1 per cent to Clinton’s 48.2 per cent is no small comfort to those who understand that Donald Trump’s unlikely victory presents the world with one of its greatest potential threats. All of a sudden, a businessman with seriously questionable ethics, who no one considered a credible candidate a year ago, will occupy the most powerful office in the world. In one of the strangest presidential campaigns ever, in which most of the Republican party repudiated their own candidate, Trump fought on the lowest common denominator available in public life: Radically xenophobic, unabashedly sexist, and racist and mostly undeterred by the need to stick to verifiable facts. The hopes that arose after his unexpectedly conciliatory victory speech have given way to even deeper misgivings with his key Cabinet appointments underlining the most offensive elements of his campaign rhetoric: Climate change deniers, radical Islamophobes and representatives of Wall Street and big business. One cartoon immediately after the elections expressed it best. It showed a picture of George W Bush, who did not support Trump, raising a glass of champagne in a toast. The caption reads: “Cheers, guys, and you thought I was the idiot.”

Kanika Datta

Oil prices

Opec asserts its cutting edge

After eight years, the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) decided to cut crude oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd) from January 2017 to maintain a production cap of 32.5 mbd. Iran has been exempted from this cut but Russia, a non-Opec interlocutor between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has agreed on production cuts to maintain oil prices at a sustainable level, bringing to an end a prolonged slump in global oil prices. 

Just like all petroleum majors across the globe, Indian companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Oil India, Cairn India and even Reliance Industries have been impacted by the slump in crude price that started in mid-2014, though it helped Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation to come out of their perennial losses. Low global prices also helped the government decontrol diesel price and push LPG and kerosene towards market pricing in a phased manner.  From an average of $39.88 a barrel in April 2016, the benchmark Indian basket climbed to $44.46 in November and is hovering above $55 in December. Though both policy makers and analysts say India is comfortable on the subsidy front till $55, a weakening rupee should be a cause of concern. The government can, however, not draw comfort from the fact that in a low price regime it had increased excise duty on petrol and diesel, and if global prices continue to rise, it will have to cushion the impact on consumers by cutting the duty rates, sacrificing some revenue.

Jyoti Mukul

Click on the image above to watch video Britain votes to leave the European Union

Island mentality

Even before Donald Trump’s unlikely victory, 52 per cent of

Britons, who voted in a referendum, shocked the world on June 23 by opting to disengage from the 28-nation European Union (EU). In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, the pound plunged to an all-time low from which it has barely recovered, David Cameron resigned as prime minister, having staked his position on a positive outcome, and the Tory Party chose Theresa May as his successor. Not that this ended the uncertainty for global businesses —including the Indian IT sector —which see the United Kingdom as the entrepôt to the European market. May has announced that the Brexit process would begin not later than March next year but much depends on a Supreme Court ruling on whether Parliament, which has been decidedly anti-Brexit, needs to vote to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to disengage from the EU. Brexit has much larger implications on the tone and direction of global politics. Already, the demands for exit from other EU nations — France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden — are becoming increasingly strident and elections in France and Germany will determine the fate of one of the most remarkable economic projects in modern history. The fact that these calls are being made by the right-wing elements in these countries underlines the xenophobia motivating the pro-Brexit voters — specifically on the critical “free movement of labour” clause and the issue of participating in the EU’s controversial deal to accommodate West Asian refugees. The EU accounts for 40 per cent of Britain’s exports, and exit would remove the benefits of tariff and non-tariff barriers and many of the subsidies it receives from Brussels. But linked to this is the fate of the City, one of the world’s three major global financial centres. Given its flexibility and ability to survive adversities for centuries, the City may remain a global financial centre but the rest of Britain may well become the small island separated from the world by a ditch and a pond of popular caricature.

Kanika Datta

Philippines’ presidential election

Duterte’s punishing schedule

The Time magazine has called him the “Punisher”, and Rodrigo “Digong” Duterte, the 16th and oldest President of the Philippines, has lived up to the name. The moniker was coined in July 2002, when Duterte was the mayor of Davao City. He had been first elected to that office in 1988, barely two years after the People Power Revolution forced President Ferdinand Marcos to leave office. Over the course of his term, Duterte has been accused of being complicit with a death squad operating in the city, the Dinhing Dapita Sadya. The controversial group has been accused of summarily executing about a 1,000 people suspected of petty crime and drug addiction on the streets of the city between 1998 and 2005.

Despite a campaign that matched Donald Trump’s in obnoxiousness, with promises to kill more criminals and an endorsement of rape, Filipinos voted him in as President on May 9 this year. Since then Duterte has decided to replicate his mayoral techniques nationwide.  During his speeches, he has repeatedly urged people of the country to kill drug addicts and criminals, and have instructed the police to shoot to kill. By September, the official death count was 2,500, and international and national human rights organisations called repeatedly for the extra-judicial killings to be stopped. Towards the end of the month, he compared the Drug War deaths with the Holocaust, provoking another international outcry. He also called US President Barack Obama “the son of a whore”, resulting in the latter cancelling a meeting with him. No matter, Duterte is leaning towards China anyway. Earlier this year, an international tribunal ruled against China’s occupation of the Spratley Islands. China has rejected the judgement and Duterte seems unwilling to provoke his powerful near neighbour. He ends the year wildly popular and unrepentant.

Uttaran Das Gupta

Ratifying the Paris Agreement

Climate change Trumped 

Midway in 2016, months after 196 countries agreed to what was widely described as the “historic” Paris Climate Change agreement, the nebulously crafted bonhomie ended. Towards the end of the year as Donald Trump became the President-elect of the United States, fear and gloom gripped the world of climate change observers. Will he rescind the agreement, they wondered? Affected by concerns about the future, negotiations for a rule book to the Paris pact began in earnest and in acrimony.  It was decided that the rule book must be ready by 2018, two years before the implementation of Paris Agreement kicks in. 

Through the year, India lurched from one side of the argument to another. Rhetorically sticking to the need for lifestyle change — a pressure point for the developed countries — it vacillated on whether to ratify the climate agreement or not. Linking it to how much effort the US put in getting India membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group at one moment and de-linking it at another, the National Democratic Alliance government finally ratified the agreement when President Obama sought his legacy gift. 

India then went a step further. It signed on to other climate agreements that it had steadfastly blocked so far — one on emissions from civil aviation and another on emissions from refrigerant gases. India’s International Solar Alliance, announced in end 2015 on a political instinct rather than solid homework, took baby steps in 2016. It didn’t get the US on board, as much as India had hoped for. It did get France. 

As 2017 begins, the government will have to set the domestic rule book in place to record the country’s emissions at a scale depth and accuracy not matched before. Then act on it. 

Nitin Sethi

The Panama Papers

The artful dodgers

Süddeutsche Zeitung journalist Bastian Obermayer was attending to his unwell wife and children when he got the first anonymous email proffering documents from a Panamanian law firm called Mossack Fonseca. The firm specialised in setting up anonymous offshore shell companies where the rich and powerful could stash their wealth, away from scrutiny. The sources of the documents, who collectively called themselves “John Doe”, said they were inspired by the sheer unfairness of these companies, and how these allowed a minority to monopolise the wealth. What they provided was 11.5 million documents, by far the largest leak ever.

Obermayer, his colleague Frederik Obermaier (no relation, but referred fondly as Brothers Obermay/ier by their colleagues) and the SZ management decided to share the information with the International Consortium of International Journalist. More than 400 journalists coordinated till the publication date of April 3. Protests erupted in Argentina, demanding the resignation of President Mauricio Macri; in the UK, Prime Minister David Cameron had the worst week, and was forced to publish his tax returns after it was revealed that a company run by his father in the Bahamas had paid no British taxes for three decades. In Iceland, Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson resigned. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's children were also named in documents prompting that country’s Supreme Court to order an investigation.  And all this is only the tip of the iceberg. 

Uttaran Das Gupta

Truck attacks in Nice and Berlin

ISIS’ new driving force

On Bastille Day (14 July), around 30,000 people had gathered to watch the fireworks around the waterfront Promenade des Anglais in Nice, France, blissfully unaware of what Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel had planned for them. The fireworks lit up the sky between 10pm and 10:30 pm, but the biggest cheers were for an aerial display by the French Air Force. 

The jubilation would, however, be short-lived. Just as the fireworks were ending, a 19-tonne, white Renault Midlum cargo truck emerged on the Promenade and accelerated to 90km, ramming into pedestrians, crushing them under its wheels. The mayhem ended five minutes later, with the police shooting dead the driver, later identified as Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, a Tunisian settler. By then, 86 people had been killed and more than 400 injured.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack; President Francois Hollande declared that the state of emergency in the country, imposed after the Paris attack in November the previous year, would continue for three months. In December, a copycat attack occurred in Berlin, Germany, as a truck was driven into a crowded Christmas market near the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church. The attacker, whose identity remains unknown, hijacked a black, Scania R 450 semi-trailer and drove it into the market, killing 12 and injuring 56. He managed to escape. A suspect, a Pakistani man, was arrested but had to be released for lack of evidence. Another suspect was killed in an encounter by the police in Milan. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for this attack, too.  

Europe, reeling from a series of such attacks by Islamic terrorists and also Brexit, sits on the edge of precipice as the year draws to the close, with the current uncertainty about its future comparable only to World War II.

Uttaran Das Gupta

Failed coup in Turkey

A strongman’s Turkish treatment

Turkey’s first directly elected President, Recip Tayyip Erdogan, is unlikely to go on holiday anytime soon after his summer sojourn was rudely cut short on July 15 with news of a coup by the military. Luckily for him, the coup was so ill-planned that it was quickly brought under control. Erdogan leveraged the coup — and the universal opposition to it across Turkey’s polarised society — to not just re-establish his power but purge the country of his opponents in the best Stalinist tradition. The military and his bodyguard were only the beginning. Having declared that the coup was the work of the exiled, US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, the purge extended to civil servants, judges, teachers, journalists and even members of the football association. Erdogan acquired three-month emergency powers from a disoriented Parliament and he exercised these essentially extra-judicial levers to the fullest. Eventually, over 1.25 million people were detained, dismissed or suspended. 

The combined evidence of several purges of the armed forces in 2010 and 2013 (again, against alleged Gulen elements), increasingly brazen corruption, and growing attacks on the media and other critics of Erdogan, suggests that Turkey, once feted as an example of the virtues of liberal Islamism, is headed for more turmoil. Serial bomb blasts and the public murder of the Russian ambassador presage more crises in 2017.  Erdogan’s announcement that Turkey was exiting the European Human Rights Convention is perhaps an early indicator of the distance he wants to place with the European Union, the common market Turkey had once aspired to join. A refugee-exchange deal, thus, hangs in the balance just as Islamic terror is rising in Europe.  Given Turkey’s status as a frontline NATO power against the Islamic State, and its role in harbouring over two million refugees from this confrontation, plus a new US president sending friendly overtures to Erdogan’s enemy Vladimir Putin, European leaders will need to find new strategies to negotiate with a democratic dictator on the cusp of Europe and Asia.

Kanika Datta

Dilma Rousseff's impeachment

Brazil’s lost hope

When Dilma Rousseff was sworn in as the first woman president of Brazil on 1 January 2011, she was accompanied by soaring hopes. As a victim of Brazil’s military junta in the past, and protégé of the charismatic former President and immediate predecessor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”), it was thought that she would continue the generous pro-poor programmes that made her party so popular. But economic growth soon slowed on the back of a slump in oil prices, the bonanza that had financed the subsidies to the poor. Within the first two years, Rousseff faced strikes from public sector workers, especially university professors, but her popularity remained high enough for her to be reelected in 2014.

But early 2015, the Petrobas scandal — in which Rousseff was implicated because she was on the company’s board when incidents of corruption occurred — broke. Massive protests began all over the country, demanding her impeachment. Not that this stopped her moving to protect Lula who has also been implicated in the Petrobras scandal.  The push for construction of dams in the Amazon basin, leading to deforestation and flooding, was a step too far. She had already faced protests from workers at the dam construction projects in 2012, but had quelled these with the deployment of military police. All these serial crises accelerated her falling popularity in her second term. In the end, however, it was not these that tripped her but a minor charge of budgetary misconduct and responsibility for administrative failures. 

On December 2, 2015, Eduardo Cunha, then president of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies, accepted an impeachment request against her and, on August 31, 2016, she was removed from office by a vote of 61-20, bringing an end to Brazil’s most successful leftist regimes.

Uttaran Das Gupta