Economic Survey pegs India's real GDP growth at 6.8-7.2 per cent in FY27

India's economy is expected to grow 6.8-7.2% in 2026-27; exports, domestic demand and reforms support growth, while global trade tensions pose some risks

India’s economy is expected to grow between 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in the financial year 2026-27, according to the Economic Survey presented in Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday. This estimate is lower than the 7.4 per cent growth projected for the current financial year, indicating a modest slowdown.

 

The forecast is in line with economic growth predictions made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF increased its growth estimate for India to 7.3 per cent for 2025-26, raising it by 0.7 percentage points from its October forecast, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance. 

 

 

The IMF has also revised India’s GDP growth outlook for 2026-27 to 6.4 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.

 

The Economic Survey said that the Indian economy remains stable. However, the report cautioned that slower growth in key global markets and trade disruptions caused by tariffs could affect exports and investor confidence.

 

For the ongoing financial year, the government has pegged economic growth at 7.4 per cent, which is higher than the 6.3 per cent to 6.8 per cent range projected in last year’s survey.

 

The Economic Survey 2026 said India’s economy picked up pace even after facing sharp tariff hikes imposed by the United States. It pointed out that although growth estimates were cut following the US decision to levy a combined 50% tariff on several Indian exports in 2025, the actual performance was better than expected.

 

The survey attributed this resilience to ongoing structural reforms and policy steps that helped the economy handle the external pressure and maintain growth momentum.

 

The survey, prepared by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the Ministry of Finance, noted that investment and consumer demand are likely to improve as companies adjust to recent policy reforms. 

 

The survey comes ahead of the Union Budget, which will be presented by FM Sitharaman on February 1. The Budget session of Parliament started on January 28.