Congress losing ground? Think again

After a spate of scams, corruption charges that scalped several Union ministers and washed-out Parliament sessions, the general perception is the Congress has been losing ground. However, data on Assembly elections reveal a different story.

Business Standard pored through the results of elections in 21 states that went to Assembly polls after the May 2009 general elections. An analysis of the performance of the two national parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), shows the Congress gained 177 seats and lost 86, while the BJP gained only 46 seats and lost 133. The net outcome: The Congress gained 91 and the BJP's net loss was 87 Assembly seats.

In this month's Karnataka polls, the Congress recorded a clean sweep, which many felt was a decisive factor. However, even if the results of the Karnataka polls are discounted, the Congress' gains would be 136 seats and losses 86, while the BJP's gains would be 46 only and losses 63. In a recent CNN-IBN programme, Devil's Advocate, Union minister Kapil Sibal rejected the popular perception that the Congress didn't enjoy popular mandate. He cited the performance of the Congress vis a vis that of the BJP in the past two years - when 11 states had gone to polls - and asserted the Congress had been gaining ground, while the BJP had been gradually losing seats. (POLITICAL STOCK)

However, these numbers have to be seen along with a few qualifiers. The gains and losses of the Congress or the BJP aren't indicative of their victory or loss in a particular state. Moreover, the performance of a national party in state Assembly polls is not the sole indicator of its performance in the national general elections. Also, these results reflect the performance of the national parties - the Congress and the BJP - alone.

 

When the results of regional allies are also considered, at times, the results are different. For instance, though the BJP's individual tally dipped by seven seats in Punjab, it formed the government with alliance partner Shiromani Akali Dal, which saw a rise in its tally. In several states - Puducherry, Kerala , Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Manipur, Meghalaya and Tripura - the BJP didn't manage to gain a single seat, compared with the past two Assembly polls.

In contrast, the Congress made major gains in the northeastern states (where the BJP has marginal presence), the hill states (Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh) and Maharashtra.