Coronavirus growth rate declines 40% post lockdown, giving India hope

Country's average growth of between March 15 and 31 was 2 per cent. Post lockdown, in the last two weeks the growth rate has come down to 1.2 per cent.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in India neared the 14,000-mark on Friday and the death toll from the infection rose to 452, even as the Union health ministry said there had been a 40 per cent decline in the growth rate of Covid-19 cases since the imposition of a nationwide lockdown last month.

The country reported as many as 1,455 more cases since Thursday evening — the highest single-day jump — taking the tally to 13,835.  Gujarat on Friday became the sixth state, after Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, to cross the 1,000-mark in Covid-19 cases.

The average growth rate of Covid cases in India between March 15 and March 31 was 2 per cent, which has now come down to 1.2 per cent, the health ministry said.

“It is a product of how we are managing the situation at the ground level. This decline has happened after we have increased the collection of samples, including of those affected by acute respiratory infections,” said Lav Aggarwal, joint secretary at the ministry.

India has conducted 319,400 tests so far, of which 28,340 were conducted on Thursday. The country is likely to develop the capacity to manufacture one million test kits a month, and one million rapid detection kits, by next month, Aggarwal said.

The doubling rate of cases in the country has dropped to 6.2 days over the past week, as against three days before the lockdown was imposed, he said.

“Cases will reduce if there is a lockdown, but it should force the government to continue this strategy indefinitely. We should use this time to prepare ourselves to face the increase in infections, which is bound to happen when the lockdown is lifted,” said epidemiologist Jayaprakash Muliyil.

In 19 states and Union Territories, the doubling rate has been lower than the national average, including in Delhi, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Telangana, and Haryana. The health ministry also reported that 13 per cent of patients had recovered so far. The outcome ratio, Aggarwal said, for cases recovered versus deaths in India showed that 20 per cent were dying, while 80 per cent were recovering — better than the global average. According to experts, however, many Covid deaths might not be getting reported or diagnosed in time.

“Most economically backward countries are reporting lower deaths due to lack of information systems. Unless an active effort is made to document, Covid deaths will not be known accurately,” Muliyil said.

The Indian Medical Council of Research (ICMR) has found three varieties of coronavirus and has not found any mutation so far.

“The virus does not mutate very fast. If it does, then we will adjust our science to it,” Raman R Gangakhedkar, head scientist at ICMR, said.