Covid-19 vaccine estimate of 2 bn doses aspirational, optimistic: Govt

Inoculation drive is a marathon, not a 100-metre sprint, says health ministry

The two billion projection for vaccine doses by December 2021 by the government is an aspirational number and shared in an optimistic way based on the roadmap given by companies, said V K Paul, member-Niti Aayog, on Friday while addressing the issue of a lower estimate given to the Supreme Court of India. 

On May 13, the government had said that an estimate of 2.16 billion Covid vaccine doses would be available between August and December, 2021. However, in an affidavit to the Supreme Court last week, it said an estimated 1.35 billion doses would be available. 

“We need to understand the context in which these statements are made… At the time there were questions on whether we would have the vaccines,” Paul said, adding, “In an optimistic way we wanted to share it with the country. These estimates were given by companies of great reputation in an aspirational way.”

India has administered 340 million vaccine doses so far. On the pace of vaccination slowing down after June 21, when it had touched almost 9 million doses in a single day, the health ministry said that the overall average doses had increased from about 235,000 in January to almost 4 million in June.

“We are running a marathon, not a 100-metre sprint. While looking at the day-to-day analysis, there is a fear of missing the big picture,” Lav Agarwal, joint secretary, health ministry, said.

The government is in talks with Johnson & Johnson for its Covid vaccine over specific terms of contractual agreements. “We have got their feedback and discussions are moving forward. According to the plans, Biological E in Hyderabad will make this vaccine,” Paul said. He added that details of vaccines coming from Moderna would be available soon.

Meanwhile, the government has sent multidisciplinary teams to six states — Kerala, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Manipur — where an increased number of Covid cases are being reported. The two-member, high-level team sent to these states consists of a clinician and a public health expert.