Stubble-burning cases double since September 15 despite late rain

Despite a delayed harvest and late retreat of the southwest monsoon from North India, early instances of stubble burning have almost doubled this year in the duration September 15-October 6 to 801 from 407 in the same period of 2021 in states where the practice is most severe.

According to the Indian Agricultural Research Institute’s real-time monitoring of paddy residue-burning, these were recorded in six paddy-growing states— Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi. 

Though, mainly owing to rain, its impact on air pollution isn’t pronounced, the numbers portend ominous signs for the days to come and are also a telling comment on the mitigation efforts adopted so far.

Ground reports show much of the paddy is yet to be harvested in North India due to the delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.

The rain has increased the moisture content in standing paddy crops, which is forcing farmers to dry them to permissible levels before selling. This may lead to a bunching of the harvest once the weather clears.

While residue burning begins in late September itself, it picks up pace in the latter half of October.

The first and second weeks of November are the worst. The burning events subside by November-end.

Punjab saw an increase of 96 per cent in burning incidents, going up to 630 from 320 in 2021. Just like in 2021, the highest number of burning events was in Amritsar and Tarn Taran districts.

In Amritsar it was an increase from 190 to 419 and in Tarn Taran from 50 to 106. There was an increase of 200 per cent in Haryana with 74 reported this year as against 24 in 2021, with the highest numbers reported in Kurukshetra and Karnal districts.

The burning incidents doubled from 13 to 26 in Kurukshetra. The cases in Karnal also increased from five to 19. 

In Madhya Pradesh the number is seven as against 10 last year. The monsoon is expected to stay even longer in the North.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest weather update issued on Friday, said heavy rain was likely to continue in Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, and East Rajasthan in the next four-five days.

There could also be heavy rain even in Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Rayalaseema during the next three-four days, the Met said.

The rain and strong easterly winds could improve the air quality in Delhi-NCR. According to the Air Quality Early Warning System (AQEWS), in Delhi, the forecasting model of the Union ministry of earth sciences, the air quality in the city is likely to remain in the “satisfactory” (51-100 micrograms per cubic metre) to “good” (50 micrograms per cubic metre and below) categories. 

The AQI of PM10 and PM2.5 is likely to remain in the “good” category.

“The air quality is likely to be in the Good category on Saturday and Sunday. Air quality is likely to remain in the Satisfactory category on Monday,” the AQEWS said. 

There is a possibility that Delhi might avoid extreme pollution events till late October, unlike last year.

“Early Diwali also means late accumulation of pollutants when it is not so cold,” the pollution monitoring system of the earth sciences ministry said.