India Coronavirus Dispatch: 90 infections 'missed' for one detected

A slowing spread of the virus, measures to ensure safety in vaccine development, an expanding digital divide, and more-news relevant to India's fight against Covid-19

India is 'missing' about 90 infections for every case detected: Govt analysis

Here's a recent analysis from the Department of Science and Technology (DST) on the number of infections missed for every case detected.

Until November, India missed about 90 infections for every case detected, the writer says citing the analysis. In medical terms, a case refers to an infection that has been medically diagnosed, the writer of the article says citing the analysis. 

The analysis is by the same committee that developed the India-specific supermodel that predicted that the pandemic will subside by February next year in India. UP and Bihar are estimated to have missed about 300 infections for every case detected. Delhi and Kerala had missed just about 25 infections for every case. A similar analysis in September had shown that India had missed about 60-65 infections for every detected case, the writer says. Read more here

India risks losing a generation to pandemic-induced disruption

What is the digital divide? It is the gulf between those with the resources and knowledge to take advantage of the internet and those without.

As many as four in five Indian students could not access internet-administered schooling during the lockdown. Many students might not even return to classrooms when they reopen, says the writer of this article citing a recent study by Oxfam. That’s just one example of how the pandemic has worsened the country’s digital divide, exacerbating already stark levels of inequality.

Before the pandemic struck, government researchers estimated India’s storied digital shift could unlock economic value of up to $1 trillion over five years, the writer says. But the crisis is spreading those benefits unevenly and widening socio-economic inequalities. For instance, girls are suffering more than boys and rural areas more affected than cities. Read more here

Measures to ensure proper safety checks while developing vaccines

As the Indian government, the medical authorities, and drugmakers scramble to get a vaccine out, the fears of inadequate safety checks continue to linger. Here are a few measures to ensure better safety, says the writer of this article. 

The Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI), India's drug regulator, would do well to take a leaf out of the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) playbook. The FDA is often seen as the benchmark in drug regulation. The FDA followed a robust and transparent process when it approved the Pfizer vaccine candidate, the writer says. The FDA managed to do all that without slowing down.

Second, we need to handle serious adverse events in clinical trials sensitively. There have been at least two serious adverse events in India, one each with Covishield and Covaxin. In both cases, the trial runners tried to sweep it under the rug in and were dismissive. They should have been assessed transparently even if the events were really not connected to the vaccine. Lastly, given the speed of development more transparency around clinical trials data is much needed, the writer says. Read more here

A breakdown of the numbers that signal a slowing spread of the virus

Here's a breakdown of recent Covid-19 statistics and three factors that give India renewed hope that the spread of the virus in on a steady decline. 

First, India’s daily case trajectory at lowest in 5 months. India reported 22,022 new Covid-19 cases on Monday. This is the lowest daily caseload reported across the country since July 2, when the country saw 21,853 daily cases, the writer of this article says. 

Second, the situation is under control in all of India’s hot spot states for the first time ever. Places like Delhi, Kerala, West Bengal and Rajasthan, which were still reporting rising numbers after the mid-September peak, have come under control in the past fortnight. Lastly, the positivity rate touches the lowest ever. On Monday, 2.2% of samples tested across India came back positive – the lowest single-day positivity rate reported since April 25 (also 2.2%). Read more here

Malnutrition, anaemia linked to severe form of Covid in infants: Study

Here's some fresh research from a team of researchers at the B J Medical College and Sassoon General Hospital in Pune that sheds light on the impact of Covid on infants.

Malnutrition and anaemia are associated with severe Covid in infants, the writer of the article says citing the study. The findings, published in the Journal of Tropical Paediatrics, shows how infants who had a severe form of the disease also had co-morbidities. While it is believed that Covid-19 is less common among children, including infants, researchers said this could also be due to a lower risk of exposure. It could also be because of incomplete identification owing to mild or asymptomatic disease, rather than resistance, the writer says. Read more here