India needs 2.5 mn daily vaccinations to cover 30% population by Dec

Under 1 per cent of the population has been vaccinated so far

With just under 1 per cent of the population vaccinated so far at a daily run-rate of 1.4 million doses, India will have to inoculate 2.5 million daily to cover at least 30 per cent of the population, that too by the end of the year, according to a report.

But even at 1.4 million daily vaccinations now, India is the second-fastest in the world, grossing up 21 million vaccinations so far after the US, but this is the lowest among the 26 most-affected countries in terms of coverage, UBS Securities India economist Tanvee Gupta Jain said in a report on Tuesday.

She, however, expects the run-rate to increase in the coming weeks as the private sector participation rises and assumes a higher run-rate of 2.5 million daily doses would ensure inoculation of 30 per cent of the population by 2021-end, and 62 per cent by 2022-end, building in a two-dose vaccination regime.

But if the daily run-rate stagnates at the current level of 1.4 million, the country would have inoculated only 16 per cent of the population by 2021-end, she said.

The country began the vaccination drive on January 16 in stages, with the first stage meant for frontline healthcare workers in-line with the global trend. The second stage, currently underway, is meant for vulnerable people -- senior citizens and persons with comorbidities.

As of March 7, 21 million doses had been administered in the country and at 1.4 million daily inoculations, India is second to the US which does 2.15 million doses a day.

In terms of the proportion of people vaccinated based on a two-dose regime, Israel is at 50 per cent, the UAE at 32 per cent, Britain at 17 per cent and the US at 13 per cent to date and India is at less than 1 per cent.

UBS analysts now estimate 18.7 per cent of the global population will be vaccinated by 2021-end. Twenty of the 26 largest economies saw an improvement, including every single developed economy the team tracks, but the pace slowed in emerging markets. The largest contributor to acceleration in developed markets was the US with a run-rate of 2.15 million vaccine doses per day.

In terms of vaccination cost, Jain said the Budget has allocated an additional Rs 1,18,000 crore towards public healthcare, which is 1 per cent of the GDP and double of FY21.