June ends with 16% surplus rains, best in 3 years

Skymet says 4 distinct monsoon spell from July 6; IMD disagrees

The southwest monsoon ended the first month of its four-month journey over India that ends in September with a surplus of 16 per cent, the best in the last three years and, according to some meteorologists, also among the best in a El Nino year.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in June, the country received around 189.5 millimetres of rain as against a normal of around 163.6 millimetres.

The rainfall was not only good, but also well-distributed with 95 per cent of the country's total landmass receiving normal or excess showers, while it was deficient in just five per cent of the area.

The southwest monsoon over north India in June was almost 31 per cent above normal, while over central India it was 31 per cent more than normal.

In the southern peninsular India, the rainfall was 19 per cent more than normal in June, while in east and north-east India, it was one per cent above normal. June gets the least amount of rainfall in the four-month season.

Last year, June was almost dry and the total rainfall in the country was around 43 per cent less than normal, which was its worst performance in almost 100 years.

The rains, which entered the country on June 5 after a delay of four days, was confined over the southern and eastern and north-eastern parts of the country in the initial few days.

But, it later picked up pace and moved into the central and northern parts in full strength, covering the entire country by June 26, almost a fortnight before its scheduled date.

The rains was so strong over central and north India that for few days, the total quantum of rains was almost 50 per cent more than normal, while the intensity was maintained along the western coast. Mumbai, the country's financial capital was flooded due to heavy incessant rains.

The showers not only boosted sowing of kharif crops, but also improved sentiment in the stock markets, which till then was apprehensive about the southwest monsoon performance, given the adverse forecast by IMD.

Acreage of kharif crops which started on a slow pace and was almost nine per cent less than 2014 after the first week, picked up pace as the monsoon reached the critical rainfed areas of central, western and northern India.

Till last week, the total area under pulses and oilseeds was around 80 per cent over 427 per cent more than 2014, though the total area covered is just 10.2 per cent and 15.29 per cent of the normal area which is sown during the kharif season.

The rains also helped in filling up the reservoirs and till June 26, water in the total 91 reservoirs across the country was at 43.26 billion cubic meters, which was 27 per cent of the total storage capacity in these reservoirs. The storage was 111 per cent of last year and 146 per cent of last 10 years average

All eyes would now be on how the southwest monsoon performs during the critical months of July and thereafter in August. July is the month, which gets maximum rainfall in the four-month season somewhere around 289 millimetres.

The rains are important not only for the final kharif harvest but will have an impact on overall economic growth. IMD has said that rainfall would remain subdued during the next 20-25 days, private weather forecasting company, Skymet said that it won't be like that and there won't be any long break in showers in July as is being foreseen.

"The monsoon might take a breather between the July 2 and 6, but thereafter there would be rains in four distinct spell, the first one starting from July 6-8, then from July 14-17 and then from July 23-26 and the fourth and final one starting from July 30 to August 2. The first spell between July 6 and 8 will be concentrated in north, central and east India," Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said in a website post.

"If July, August and September rains are deficient by 8-10 and 20 per cent, even then the season as a whole would not be a drought," Singh said. For July, he has forecast rainfall to be 104 per cent of LPA, with a model error of plus and minus 16 per cent. EoM