Monsoon to cover most parts by June-end

Heavy rainfall expected in HP, Uttarakhand, UP, Delhi in next 24 hours: IMD

The southwest monsoon, the lifeline of millions of farmers, is expected to cover 90-95 per cent of the landmass by the end of June, within its normal time, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

So far, this year’s rains had been almost 12 per cent more than normal and among the best in the past few years, Laxman Singh Rathore, IMD’s director-general told Business Standard.

Rathore said rains might move over western and northern India six or seven days ahead of the scheduled arrival date and cover 90-95 per cent of the country by the end of this month. (Rain relief in sight)

“June rainfall is definitely going to be surplus this year,” said Rathore. India receives 14-16 per cent of the total rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon, which is estimated at 89 centimetres.

Rains during the four months account for almost 70 per cent of the total precipitation that the country receives in a year and are hence crucial for agriculture.

According to Rathore, the pre-monsoon showers have been excellent across north, central, western and eastern parts of the country, which has further raised hopes. “In fact, we are going to issue advisories of ‘heavy’ to ‘very heavy’ rainfall in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, plains of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and the national capital region.”

He said the overall situation looked promising for agriculture, as water levels in major reservoirs across the country were also at a comfortable position. “Early rains are good for kharif sowing, particularly that of paddy and coarse cereals. I also believe that these rains, particularly in western India, would help in meeting the water shortage in cotton and sugarcane crops,” said Rathore.

According to Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet Weather Services Ltd, the rain till now has been before time and it will cover Gujarat, Maharashtra, south Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal by tomorrow, 24-36 hours before its scheduled date of arrival. “The western ends of the monsoon trough is progressing much faster than the eastern troughs, and will cover the entire Gujarat much ahead of its scheduled arrival date on June 15.”

Palawat added the pre-monsoon showers over northwest India — Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh — are expected to start from tonight or early tomorrow and continue till June 22-24. “We expect that the pre-monsoon showers in north India will be largely during late evening, night or early morning hours,” Palawat added. He said the actual southwest monsoon would arrive over Delhi around July 5-7. Skymet had earlier predicted rains would reach Delhi during the first week of July, while IMD said it would be around June 22.

Palawat said the southwest monsoon’s intensity would go down in July in parts of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, east and north Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab.