Second Covid-19 wave's decline may be as rapid as its rise: Gagandeep Kang

India could see the beginning of decline by middle to end of May, said Gagandeep Kang

With the second Covid wave surging at a rapid pace, the decline too is expected to be sharp, said Gagandeep Kang, professor of microbiology at Christian Medical College, Vell­ore. Going forward, Kang said, there could be a few smaller peaks but in the long term the virus is expected to become seasonal with people developi­ng a certain level of immunity.
 
Interacting with members of the Indian Women Press Corps over video, Kang said, “It will become like a really bad flu virus that will settle down. Due to imperfect immunity, we may need vaccine boosters but we are not going to be in this situation many more times, at least with this virus. We may see two or more peaks but they won’t be as bad as this one.”
 
Kang pointed out that the virus is burning through areas it did not reach last year — rural areas, middle-class sections — and that hereafter there may be little fuel left or few people left for this virus to affect. “If we can ramp up vaccination, then we will be in a very good place in the next few months though the challenge is the size of our population and the supply of vaccines,” she said.
 
India’s second wave is seeing 3.5 to 4 times more cases compared to the first wave. “We don’t have an explanation for why we had such a small peak the first time around...Was it because of the lockdown or the efforts we were making previously?”
 
Going by absolute numbers, Kang said that middle to end of May India could see the beginning of decline. “That is a reasonable estimate but the declining number of tests is worrying.”
 
On lockdown
 
On whether the country needs to go for another national lockdown to get a grip over the situation, Kang said that will help with the control of the virus. “If we want to have fewer cases two-three weeks from now, we should lockdown today as it will guarantee a lower caseload. However, if it's going to cause even more severe damage then this is a balancing game that you have to play.”
 
She said that the country needs to learn to deal with flare-ups and the best way to do so is let the local data inform local solutions.
 
While Kang previously chaired a committee under the Indian Council of Medical Research for just two weeks and is not involved in any consultation by the centre, she is consulting two states (Punjab and Andhra Pradesh).

Gagandeep Kang, professor of microbiology at Christian Medical College, Vell­ore