Tale of two countries: India's Covid-19 trajectory is similar to the US'

After four months of the US witnessing its second wave, India is also seeing a resurgence in cases. Earlier, India had registered 30,000 cases three months after the US did

India on Monday saw another massive surge in daily coronavirus infections, with nearly 50,000 cases being reported in a day. While about two-thirds of these infections were from Maharashtra alone, cases in other states also saw an increase.

This late surge came days after India’s coronavirus situation appeared to be thawing: Just 20 days earlier, the country’s daily cases had been in the ballpark of 12,000. India has differed from the US, the country most affected by the pandemic, in its approach to handling the virus — the burden of cases in proportion to population is much lower in India. But it seems to be following the same trajectory as the US in so far as the second wave of Covid-19 infections is concerned.

India started averaging 1,000 daily infections within a month of the US doing so. But cases in the US galloped faster. By April 6, 2020, the US was registering 30,000 infections. India, on the other hand, took another three months to register 30,000 daily cases. On August 6, 2020, cases in the US had started falling, even as those in India were still rising. India hit its peak, just shy of 100,000 infections, on September 18, just over two months after the US hit its peak.

And now, while Covid-19 infections in the US seem to be falling, coronavirus cases in India are on the rise again. According to John Hopkins University data, while the US averaged 54,308 infections on Sunday, the weekly average of infections in India was 37,249.

Infections in India seem to be rising within four months of the US starting its second wave. In the US, the second wave was characterised by a much faster increase in daily cases. On January 11, the US had averaged 250,349 daily infections.