Vaccine supply from Centre crucial for rapid coverage as some states lag

States with faster vaccination rates are those that received a greater quantum of doses from the Centre

About 54 per cent of adults in India currently stand fully vaccinated with two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. While the country is faced with a mammoth target to double-shoot 944 million people, nearly 100 million people still await even their first dose, and over 400 million are partially vaccinated.

There is wide variation among states in terms of coverage of two doses among the adult population. For instance, Himachal Pradesh and Sikkim have nearly touched the mark (Data pertains to December 6). Gujarat is touching 80 per cent, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh were close to 70 per cent achievement. But Bihar and Maharashtra have not even crossed 50 per cent, while only 35 per cent of adults in Uttar Pradesh had taken two doses by the first week of December.

As it turns out, leading states had received a good amount of vaccine doses as a proportion of the adult population there, while those which are laggards, have received a relatively lower number of doses. By November 29, Gujarat had received 81 million doses of the vaccine freely from the Centre, which comes to be 173 per cent of the adult population in the state.

To complete two-dose based full vaccination of all adults, a state needs to procure doses from more than 200 per cent of the adult population from all sources. But as Centre’s supply to states is the chief source of vaccines for the latter, this supply route assumes the highest importance.

In that regard, Maharashtra and UP had received doses that would cover only 122 per cent of the adult population, by November 29. Nagaland and Puducherry had less than 110 per cent. But in general, smaller states have received faster supply with respect to population, while bigger states have struggled to procure commensurately.

The first chart shows how states which got a better supply from the Centre succeeded in getting better coverage of two doses as December began. Again, much of it is due to the updated Covid-19 vaccination policy that mandates the Centre to procure 75 percent of all vaccines produced in the country, to be supplied to states.

Coverage in some states has also been restricted due to limitations in capacity to administer doses. The lying stock as of December 1 was as high as 227 million, enough to fully cover the remaining adult population with the first dose, and reduce the target of the second dose from 450 million to 300 million.

Central Indian states already have with them nearly half the number of doses they require to vaccinate all adults with two doses. Haryana had all the doses it needed as of December 1, Gujarat had 70 per cent of the need. Kerala has in its stock just 5 per cent of its current requirement: 0.7 million idle stock as against 13.5 million doses needed. Andhra Pradesh can cover 13 per cent, while UP can cover only 22 per cent from the stock they have. Covishield has a shelf-life of nine months.

These big states need fresh supply to bridge the gap. If boosters enter the policy scene anytime soon, they will add to the requirement, suggesting that Centre’s thrust in procurement and supply is still as paramount as it was at the beginning of the vaccination program.

Parliament data has been used for Centre to states vaccine supply (as of November 29) and idle stock (December 1). CoWin data updated on December 6, 12 noon has been used for vaccination coverage.