'Sept showers to be better'

With chances of El Niño weather pattern receding, the agriculture ministry hopes rainfall in September would be better than earlier forecast, helping bridge the shortfall in sowing area to some extent.

Early this month, India Meteorological Department (IMD) had pegged below normal monsoon in September due to likely warming of the Pacific Ocean, popularly known as the El Niño phenomenon.

“According to IMD’s latest update to us, there will not be El1 Niño effect on monsoon as chances of its occurrence is receding. Temperature in Pacific Ocean is okay and in September, rainfall is expected to be better than the IMD forecast,” Agriculture Secretary Ashish Bahuguna told PTI.

Monsoon in the country is deficient by 14 per cent so far, which has affected sowing operations, particularly in four states — Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Total area under kharif crops is down at 32.9 million hectares as on August 24, against 34.2 million hectares in the same period last year. “Overall, the gap in coverage is five per cent of the normal area. Next month’s rain will help cover the gap to some extent,” Bahuguna said.

Monsoon has improved and sowing has picked up in some parts of the country, he said.

Asked if there would be a major impact on overall foodgrain production in 2012-13 crop year (July-June), Bahuguna said: “Total output might be slightly lower than last year’s 257.44 million tonnes”.

“There would be some drop in production of pulses and coarse cereals. With respect to other crops, there should not be any problem,” he added.

Till last week, the main kharif crop, rice, was sown in 32.92 million hectares, against 34.20 million hectares in the same period last year, according to the agriculture ministry data.

While area under coarse cereals was down at 16.53 million hectares from 19 million hectares, pulses’ area was lower at 8.83 million hectares, against 9.98 million hectares in the year-ago period.

Area under oilseeds was also down at 16.43 million hectares from 16.99 million hectares in the review period. Among cash crops, cotton acreage was slightly lower at 11.15 million hectares as on August 24, against 11.77 million hectares in the same period last year. However, area under sugarcane was up at 5.29 million hectares, against 5.06 million hectares in the review period.

El Niño refers to abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the Pacific that disrupts weather pattern causing drought and floods in many regions of the world.