5.4% Gdp Growth Likely This Fiscal

The advance estimates for 2001-02 have put gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current fiscal at 5.4 per cent, which is almost the same as the finance ministry's projection of 5.5 per cent.

The agriculture sector is expected to pull up economic growth during the year. In its advance estimates (AE) for the current fiscal released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), agriculture is projected to grow by a record 5.7 per cent, as against a 0.2 per cent fall in the value added in the previous year.

The AEs are based on anticipated level of agricultural and industrial production, analysis of the Budget estimates of government expenditure and performance of key sectors like railways, transport, communication, banking and insurance available so far, said an official release.

Economists, however, expect the CSO to further revise the GDP growth rates to around 5.6 - 5.7 per cent, mainly due to an upward revision in the growth rates for construction and manufacturing.

The AE for the construction sector put the expected growth rate for the current fiscal at 2.9 per cent as against 6.8 per cent in the previous fiscal. The CSO expects the construction sector to do badly mainly on account of the 6.4 per cent growth in cement production and a 0.3 per cent fall in steel production in the first nine months of 2001.

According to the AE of GDP for 2001-02, the outlook for the manufacturing sector continues to be dismal with 3.3 per cent growth as against a growth of 6.7 per cent in 2000-01.

Besides the agricultural sector, the services and trade sectors are expected to contribute to an improvement in economic growth. Financial, insurance, real estate and business services are expected to grow at 7.5 per cent as compared to 2.9 per cent in 2000-01. This is likely to be driven by the 15.2 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 14 per cent growth in bank credit between November 2000 and November 2001.

Trade, hotels, transport and communication is slated to grow at 6.3 per cent in 2001-02 as against 5.3 per cent in the last financial year. The hike in growth is mainly on account of a 3.9 per cent growth in the gross trading index, 6.7 per cent growth in the combined index of railway net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers. Cargo handled at major ports has gone up by 2.4 per cent, stock of commercial vehicles has gone up by 4.7 per cent and outstanding telephone connections have increased by 20.9 per cent.

Mining and quarrying is expected to finish the fiscal with a 1.4 per cent growth as against over 3.3 per cent in the last fiscal.

Electricity, gas and water supply has been projected to grow at 5.2 per cent as against 6.2 per cent in the last financial year and community, social and personal services is likely to achieve a flat growth of six per cent as in 2000-2001.

The GDP at factor cost at constant prices is likely to attain a level of Rs 12,58,808 crore as against the quick estimates of Rs 11,93,922 crore for 2000-01.

The per capita income is expected to go up by a sharp 3.5 per cent as compared to a 1.9 per cent growth in the previous fiscal. The per capita income is likely to go up to Rs 10,618 (AE) as compared to Rs 10,254 (QE) for 2000-01.