 "Advance Estimates for GDP today amid Omicron-induced uncertainties")
Advance Estimates have accurately projected the real GDP growth rate in three of the past 13 years — 2012-13, 2015-16 and 2016-17. The growth rate was actually higher than the Advance Estimate for 2009-10, while in 2017-18, the second Advance Estimate was accurate, but the first one was not.
The first and second Advance Estimates were the same for 2019-20, but turned out to be wrong when the actual numbers came. It was likely because the two Advance Estimates came out on January 6 and February 28, respectively, when the impact of Covid-19 was difficult to gauge as the lockdown was annou-nced towards the last week of March.
Both were more pessimistic than the actual data suggested for 2020-21, with the second one more off the mark than the first even as Covid-induced lockdowns had been lifted by then. The Advance Estimates for 2021-22 will be released on Friday amid uncertainty over Omicron.
The first and second Advance Estimates were the same for 2019-20, but turned out to be wrong when the actual numbers came. It was likely because the two Advance Estimates came out on January 6 and February 28, respectively, when the impact of Covid-19 was difficult to gauge as the lockdown was annou-nced towards the last week of March.
Both were more pessimistic than the actual data suggested for 2020-21, with the second one more off the mark than the first even as Covid-induced lockdowns had been lifted by then. The Advance Estimates for 2021-22 will be released on Friday amid uncertainty over Omicron.
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