Air travellers show 2x rise in June first week over May as Covid cases fall

Rise in passenger uptake expected to be swifter than it was after 1st wave

After a dismal month in May this year due to passenger numbers plummeting on the back of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is some good news for the aviation business.

According to leading airlines, the total number of air passengers per day across India has doubled from a low of 40,000-42,000 a day in May to an average of over 82,000 a day in the first week of June. The upsurge in passenger numbers has taken place as states have started easing lockdown measures, buoyed by declining infection numbers and case positivity rates. 

The uptake of passengers at Delhi airport, the country’s largest by capacity and number of passengers, has also seen an increase in the first few days of June, hitting 30,000 a day — a 66 per cent rise over 18,000 a day throughout the month of May. 

Many airlines, airports and travel agencies feel that the uptake of passengers after the second wave will be much faster than it was after the first wave of the pandemic, when flights were allowed to be resumed in May end last year.

Says Subhash Goyal, founder chairman of Stic Travels and a senior member of many top travel and hospitality associations: “We are cautiously optimistic that passenger uptake will go up after lockdowns are withdrawn, as people want to travel. We expect the uptake of passengers to be faster than that after the first wave. But we also need to be careful of the third wave.”

Airline companies are divided on how quick the recovery will be. Says the CEO of an Indian low-cost carrier: “Customers are willing to fly, airlines and airports are ready, the third wave is at least three months away and India is better prepared. We expect that by June second week the overall numbers should hit 1.5 lakh passengers a day.”

A senior executive of a leading Indian carrier has a different view. “Yes, there has been an uptake in June. The reason is simple: increase in passengers is directly linked to the decrease in the number of Covid-19 cases and these have come down by a third. But if the trend changes, we will be back to square one. So I cannot predict passenger growth.We are looking at each day.”

He points out that currently, fleet capacity utilisation is at an average of 20-25 per cent. So the first step is to see how quickly they can go to 50 per cent, which is what is mandated by the government till 30 June).

For airports, too, the situation is precarious. Says a senior executive of an airport company: “We are readying for a quick uptake in passengers and increasing our capacity utilisation. Otherwise our business is in serious trouble.”  

In February last year, before Covid-19 hit the world, airlines in India ferried over 4.12 lakh passengers a day. After the outbreak of the pandemic, and after airline services resumed at the end of May last year, the increase in passenger traffic was slow, going up from 42,000 on 27 May to 178,000 in October. By March end this year, before the second wave struck, the number of passengers had hit 3.13 lakh a day. 

Whether India’s airlines can touch that peak again in the near future is anybody’s guess.