Allies do the math before claiming their ministries

Congress prefers talking to independents.

Will the formula for ministry-making in 2004 be applied this time, too? This was the preoccupation of anxious allies as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) got down to ministry making.

In 2004, the rule of thumb was total number of UPA MPs/number of ministerial berths (fixed at 82 by law) multiplied by the strength of the party in Parliament.

According to this formula, it emerged that for every 3.5 MPs, a party was entitled to one ministership. Regional representation and Rajya Sabha representation were also considerations.

This time, since Congress represents 70 per cent of the UPA, a section of the party has proposed that the ratio now should be 6.5 MPs to one cabinet ministership and one minister of state. Accordingly, Congress MPs from Maharashtra expect that the tally of Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) could go down to one, from two cabinet berths in 2004 and he be reduced to seeking an additional post of minister of state.

Similarly, whereas Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with 23 MPs in 2004 was able to wangle three cabinet berths, it may get just one this time (if at all), because it has managed to get just four seats in this election.

Current allies like the Trinamool Congress (19 seats now against one in the last election) are seeking four cabinet berths, including home affairs, that the Congress is unlikely to give. Instead, she may be offered Railways, a berth she held in the National Democratic Alliance under Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

The National Conference (NC) veteran Farooq Abdullah, with five MPs has staked a claim for the tourism and culture ministry.

The prime minister has to choose a few Muslim ministers and has to decide between Ghulam Nabi Azad (Congress, J&K) and Abdullah (NC J&K) and Saifuddin Soz (Congress J&K). Salman Khurshid (Congress UP) may also be offered a berth.

The DMK, which had 16 seats in 2004 and has won 18 this time, meanwhile, has let it be known that it would like eight ministerships including telecommunications, which it held before and railways. H D Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), with three seats is keen to join the government. It was not part of the UPA in 2004.

It was this and other problems that kept the Congress brass occupied all day. Statements emanating from the Congress suggested it was less than enthusiastic about increasing its tally to 272 from the current UPA count of 262 by taking the help of the SP that has 23 MPs.

At a press conference in Delhi, party general secretary Amar Singh said the SP parliamentary board had authorised him to negotiate with the Congress.

Till the evening, the Congress seemed reluctant to negotiate with it and a meeting with Pranab Mukherjee was scheduled later in the day.

A large section of the party, felt these allies should not be entertained. General Secretary Prithviraj Chavan has told the prime minister that the JD(S) split the secular vote in Karnataka, leading to Congress’ bad showing. “The only aim of these people was to prevent you from becoming prime minister again,” he told Singh.

Therefore, rather than take help from another big chunk in the form of a political party, the Congress said it would seek the help of independents, including Hassan Khan from Ladakh, Inder Singh Namdhari from Chatra, Jharkhand; Kirori Lal from Dausa, Rajasthan, and Madhu Koda from Singhbhum, Jharkhand.

MOST of these individuals are either disgruntled Congressmen or have been supported by the party.

But is it enough to reach 272, the number needed to form a majority in the House? The party is divided on this. It has managed a good showing in the Lok Sabha elections only because it relied on its state units’ advice on the allies it should have and the ones it should drop. Its decision to go it alone in UP helped boost its numbers. But a precarious and slender majority just crossing 272 could create parliamentary perils for it any time, some managers felt.

Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi are likely to meet later on Monday to continue negotiations with allies.