BCI moderates to 5.1% in March: Zyfin

The Business Cycle Indicator is an index to gauge the Index of Industrial Production

As the country got into an election mode, the industrial activity moderated in March due to the "onset of the elections code of conduct in the country", a report by financial firm Zyfin Research said today.

The Business Cycle Indicator - an index to gauge the Index of Industrial Production (IIP)-expanded by 5.1% in March compared to 5.4% a month ago. This reflected a minor decline in industrial activity in April, Zyfin said in its monthly report today.

According to this index, much of what happens in BCI is reflected in the industrial production of the next month as it is a composite of 40 indicators released by various government sources and forecasts trend in the IIP a month ahead.

"The modest decline has likely been caused by the onset of code of conduct for the general elections, leading to a  lowdown in infrastructural activity," the firm said.

However, the firm believed that the industrial activity will pickup in the coming months and is a temporary deviation. The latest IIP data for March will be released on Friday. In February, the industrial output showed a virtual halt in growth as it expanded by a mere 0.1%.

"Unless the economy experiences an adequate demand push, a sustained and speedy recovery in economic activity remains difficult," said Debopam 

Chaudhuri, Vice President of Research and Development of ZyFin Research. Chaudhari even pointed out that the spending activity has not picked up and any major recovery in consumer spending in unlikely till another six months.