Biz cycle indicator up 5.1% in April

The BCI score for April rises to 165.9 on the back of falling global prices of crude oil, gold and copper

The business cycle indicator (BCI) for the Indian economy showed 5.1 per cent year-on-year growth in April 2013, indicating signs of continued recovery. BluFin, a financial information and content company, on Tuesday said the BCI score for April rose to 165.9 on the back of falling global prices of crude oil, gold and copper. The rising domestic production of intermediate goods such as aluminum also gave a positive push. BCI continues to indicate that the economy is growing at a faster rate than in the previous year.

BCI provides real-time information on the state of the business cycle in the Indian economy.

The key negative contributors to the BCI in April were slowing revenue generation from rail freight, domestic air travel and agricultural exports.

The year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate of BCI noted in March was 4.7 per cent. Historically, the BCI has grown 7 per cent on an average.

The current economic trends point to sustainable growth in the quarters ahead. The BCI has been indicating an economic revival since July 2012, although the projected recovery path is sluggish in the near term.

According to BluFin, growth in the first quarter of FY14 would be sluggish. Growth should pick up by Q2 with a quarterly growth of 6.2-6.5 per cent, it said.