Bjp Leaders Not Sure Of Winning Up
A party general secretary said privately that he had been expecting 190 seats for the party before farmer leader Mahendra Singh Tikait's party joined the United Front along with Congress leader Ajit Singh.
The new party could make a dent in the BJP's strength in western UP, which has in the past given it more seats than either central or eastern UP. Some party leaders feel that Tikait's decision to join the UF might cost the BJP anywhere between five to fifteen seats in the western UP.
Some party leaders also have mixed feelings about victory, saying that the United Front government at the Centre would get a fresh lease of life in case the BJP was able to form a government in UP. Their theory of threat of communalism would become more pronounced when a BJP government is installed in UP, a BJP central office bearer said.
In eastern Uttar Pradesh, the party was uncertain about its prospects in 35 constituencies, according to a general secretary. These seats could come to us, they could go to others, he said. The party's endeavour is to ensure that Sangh workers are fully activated to help it win these.
Local difficulties apart, the court order to frame charges against national president LK Advani in the hawala case has further demoralised the party rank and file. A serious dissidence problem in Gujarat and a real threat to the state government had already put party workers on the defensive. Though Advani is likely to tour UP in the last week of this month, even his colleagues don't expect him to generate the enthusiasm of his rath yatra days. The party has already decided to try and cash in on the image of former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who is expected to be the main campaigner.
The assessment by these national leaders of the UP scenario is not fully shared by the party's state leaders, who argue that the party will win a majority on the basis of its performance in the Lok Sabha election.
The BJP had stood first in 236 Assembly segments out of a total number of 425. It had stood second in 124 other constituencies. The state leaders argue that the party is therefore in a winning position in upto 360 seats.