Continuing wet spell may harm kharif crops

As the southwest monsoon becomes active during the fag end of its four-month journey over India, concerns are being expressed on the impact of the delayed withdrawal on standing kharif crops.

Already, there is some talk of damage to the standing paddy crops in southern India and Orissa.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest weather update, said the southwest monsoon had been in excess in most subdivisions in central and southern peninsular India during the week ended September 7. The overall rainfall in central India has been almost 12 per cent above normal since June 1 to September 7 this year, while southern India has witnessed eight per cent above normal rains.

At the same time, late withdrawal of monsoon rains should augur well for the coming rabi sowing season, as it would leave adequate moisture on the soil.

Cumulative rain across the country till September 7 was 103 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA is calculated as the 50-year average rainfall in the country, estimated to be 89 cm. Rainfall in the range of 96-104 per cent of LPA is considered normal.

Interestingly, IMD, in its monsoon update, said cumulative rainfall across the country in September would be only 90 per cent of LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 15 per cent.

Actual rain till the first week of September cumulated to 39 per cent above normal. The forecast had a caveat that rainfall could intensify if the weak La Nina conditions re-emerge. It seems the La Nina conditions, expected to strengthen during the four-month season, would now remain weak for the entire duration.

While the area under coarse cereals and pulses till September 7 was 8.2 per cent and 10.8 per cent less than last year, that under oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton was three per cent, 4.2 per cent and 9.2 per cent more than last year, respectively.