Core inflation above the RBI's comfort zone: experts

Following are some of the experts' view on the December inflation data.

A.Prasanna, economist, ICICI Securities

Core inflation is higher, so this rules out RBI action on repo rate in the January 24 policy review.

"I would still think there is a case for CRR cut because of tight liquidity and the scale of liquidity infusion required, but since the RBI has used CRR as a monetary measure, the probability of CRR cut has also reduced after this data.

Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist, Bank of Baroda

The core inflation at 7.5% is very high and above the RBI's comfort zone. Unless it comes down to 6.5%, I don't think the RBI will start cutting interest rates or the cash reserve ratio.

Anubhuti Sahay, economist, Standard Chartered Bank

The WPI print is much in line with expectation and shows that elevated base effect in food prices has finally pulled down inflation below the 8% mark for the first time in last 24 months.

However, the upward exertion by weaker rupee on manufactured products prices is apparent. Though on a year-on-year basis, manufactured products inflation has come off to 7.41% versus 7.70% previously, the month-on-month change in the index is pretty high.
Overall, with the recent WPI and IIP print we do not expect any repo rate reduction by the RBI on January 24. However, we expect a CRR reduction by 50 bps.

Abheek Barua, Chief economist, HDFC Bank

We seem to be on track to get to 7% or lower inflation rate by March unless there is a reversal in the international commodity price situation. There is a risk of that happening if the ECB embarks on the quantitative easing programme. But, that's a minor risk.

I am looking at a CRR cut in the monetary policy on January 24 but the RBI will wait to see whether the drop in inflation is sustained before they cut the repo rate.

Open market operations can continue but that only help in the margins. It's time to make a policy gesture and give some comfort to the bond market.