Half of India received either normal or excess rains in June and July

As the four-month southwest monsoon enters the third month Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Lakshadweep and Himachal Pradesh have been the wettest places in the first two months (June and July) among the 13 places that have received normal rain.

Between June 1 and August 10, rains were normal or excess in 31 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions. Rainfall was deficient in five meteorological subdivisions.

Almost half of India’s geographical mass has got normal or excess rain in the southwest monsoon season in this period, data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed.

According to some senior IMD officials, Odisha and Chhattisgarh received 19 per cent more than the average rainfall, while rains in Lakshadweep and Himachal Pradesh were 17 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, more than normal in June and July.

“In June and July, Odisha normally gets 551.1 millimeters of rainfall, while this year they got 657.7 millimetres. Similarly, Chhattisgarh normally gets 559 mm of rainfall in June and July but this year it got 665.5 millimeters,” the official said.

Overall, India received around 14 per cent more than the normal rainfall between June 1 and August 10.  The country normally gets 535.1 mm of rain in this period, while in 2013 it has already received 611.1 millimeters, making the year among the wettest in several years.“The monsoon progress so far this year has been among the best in the past many years.

Indications are that while rains might weaken a bit, they will surely not stop,” said a senior official. In its second stage forecast for August and September 2013, the met office said rains are likely to be normal at 94-106 per cent of long period average (LPA). LPA is the average rainfall recorded in the country in the last 50 years.

The met department, however, warned that there is also a probability of rainfall to be below normal. Overall, during the June-September period, rainfall is expected to be normal at 96 per cent of LPA with a model error of plus and minus 8 per cent.

Good rains have pushed up water levels in most of the 84 reservoirs much above their normal mark, forcing the people around some of the reservoirs in Chhattisgarh and Kerala to be evacuated to safer places.

“In general, rainfall intensity will go down in most parts of the country from August 15 onwards. However, it will stage a comeback in September, except for the north-west Indian states that include Punjab, Haryana and Delhi,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet Weather Services told Business Standard.

According to Palawat, over the next two-three days, Rajasthan, Punjab might receive heavy rains, while the intensity will go down in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and central Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. However, eastern states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, etc will continue to receive good rains in the next few days.

The more than average rainfall has encouraged farmers to plant kharif crops almost a fortnight before schedule. According to the agriculture department, sowing of kharif crops has been completed in more than 80 per cent of total area covered under kharif crops in the first week of August.

Usually, kharif crops are sown in around 107 million hectares every year. This year, sowing is complete in 82 million hectares so far, almost 11.6 per cent more than the same period last year. The biggest increase in area has been in pulses, oilseeds, paddy and coarse cereals.