Economy likely to do better in 2012-13: govt

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Reuters New Delhi
Last Updated : Feb 02 2013 | 11:05 AM IST

India's economy will likely grow faster next fiscal year than in 2011-12 because of an improved external environment and a shift in policy focus from containing inflation to growth, a top government adviser said on Wednesday.

However, Chief Economic Adviser Kaushik Basu told Reuters in an interview that public finances were expected to remain under pressure in 2012-13.

Although the official forecast for 2012-13 is still to be released, some private economists now expect the annual economic growth to be below 7%, lower than 7-7.5% widely expected to for the year to end-March 2012.

"I would forecast next year to be better than the present one," Basu said, predicting growth in the current year of close to 7.5%, a pick up the following year and a return to "full-steam" growth of around 9% by 2013-14.

In December, the government slashed its full-year growth forecast for the current fiscal year to about 7.5% from 9% amid slowing domestic and global demand.

Gross domestic product growth slowed to 6.9% in the quarter to end-September, its weakest pace in more than two years. Industrial output contracted in October for the first time in more than two years.

"The US. is on a slow rise. Europe is still on the brink but if you ask me to bet, I would say, on balance it would escape falling into another recession," he said.

"If these expectations are right, then I think India has enough fundamental strength that we will get out of the current slowdown and begin to move."

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First Published: Jan 04 2012 | 12:00 AM IST

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