Export growth likely to be 8% in January

The country’s merchandise exports in January are likely to rise 8 per cent to $14 billion, from $12.86 billion in the same month last year, making the case for stimulus withdrawal stronger in the coming Budget.

This is for the third month in a row that exports have registered growth, following a decline since October 2008 on the back of a global economic slowdown. However, exports during April-December 2009 fell 20 per cent to $117.6 billion, from $147.6 billion in the corresponding period of the previous financial year.

“I expect exports in January to be around $14 billion… Total exports could be around $165-170 billion for 2009-10. The finance and commerce ministers are scheduled to meet later this week to decide on the extension or withdrawal of stimulus packages for exporters,” Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said here today.

He, however, maintained that exporters “should be ready for some rollback”, echoing Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma, who had earlier said the sectors that had recovered completely and were having robust growth might not get any more fiscal assistance from the government.

Khullar also added that incentives should be extended to sectors still facing a demand slowdown and job losses, rather than sectors that are making profits.

On the other hand, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jyotiraditya Scindia favoured the continuation of stimulus for a “slightly longer period”. He said the commerce and industry ministry had put forward a proposal of continuing certain key incentives, such as cheaper dollar credit for exporters, interest subvention scheme and the Export Oriented Unit (EoU) benefits, to be considered in the Budget on February 26.

The country’s exports reached $13.2 billion and $14.6 billion in November and December, respectively. Some of the sectors that have seen recovery are gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals, petroleum products, basic chemical, iron ore, ready-made garments, man-made fibre and leather products, while other sectors like carpets, jute, handicrafts, rubber and electronic goods are still facing problems.