Fitch warns of fiscal slippages as Congress faces drubbing at hustings

Fitch Ratings today said the setback faced by the Congress in elections to four state assemblies could potentially raise political pressure on the government's near-term fiscal goals.

"The government has articulated a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation. But this commitment may be tested further as the deficit-reduction goals are stretched, and a steeper political struggle to pull in more votes may hinder the full scope of expenditure restraint," said Fitch, which had assigned India the lowest investor grade ratings along with its peers.

It cautioned the government that the state of public finances forms an important driver of India's sovereign ratings.

Amidst the monetary authorities' anti-inflation policy bias, appropriate fiscal policies have a greater chance of shoring up the country's savings-investment imbalance. This could lower the current account deficit, and help alleviate another key pressure point for the credit profile.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in BRIICS  nations (% y-o-y)

Country	Q1 of FY'14	Q2 of FY'14
China	7.50%	7.80%
Indonesia	5.80%	5.60%
India	4.40%	4.80%
Brazil	3.30%	2.20%
South Africa	1.30%	1.40%
Russia	1.20%	1.20%

Source: Statistical departments of the mentioned countries

The central government has stressed its strong commitment to lowering its fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP by the end of 2013-14, it said. Moreover, in the last fiscal year it also demonstrated its ability to take difficult measures to trim expenditure towards the end of the fiscal year, and to meet its headline deficit target.

The government was able to rein in the Centre's fiscal deficit at 4.9% of GDP against the projected 5.2% in the Revised Estimate.

"But the state election results might be read as increasing the risk of policy slippage. An evident anti-incumbency trend against the Congress could mean an increasing likelihood of political pressure to limit expenditure cut-backs," the raging agency warned.

This would help support economic recovery in the run-up to the national elections which must be held by May 2014. "But it may raise some doubt about the government's ability to meet its stated near-term fiscal goals."

The government's fiscal deficit has already reached 84% of its Budget Estimate for 2013-14 versus 72% over the same period a year ago. This implies a weaker headline - and operating - fiscal position. "Unless revenues surprise significantly on the upside in the remaining months of the fiscal year, it also implies the need for greater expenditure restraint than last year, to meet the deficit target," Fitch said.

At the same time, significant fiscal policy slippage is not a certainty, it said, adding there is not much time before general elections for a shift in policies to gain more traction with voters.

"We will assess the campaign pledges, and the implications for the post-election fiscal outlook. A more definitive medium-term fiscal framework will only emerge once the next government is formed," the rating agency said.