Gdp Growth May Dip To 4.4%: Govt

The economy will grow 4.4 per cent in the current fiscal because drought-affected farm output will shrink, according to advance estimates of national income by the Central Statistical Organisation.

The estimates are far lower than projections by the Reserve Bank of India and the finance ministry, which had pegged it between 5 per cent and 5.5 per cent.

The GDP grew 5.6 per cent in 2001-02. The dip in growth this year is mainly because farm output is expected to contract 3.1 per cent, against a 5.7 per cent growth in 2001-02. The Central Statistical Organisation said today the fall in value added by the sector was due to the prevailing drought.

Manufacturing is, however, poised to make a significant recovery at 6.1 per cent, while trade, transport, hotels and communications will end with a 7.8 per cent growth, according to the Central Statistical Organisation. In 2001-02 they grew, respectively, 3.4 per cent and 8.7 per cent.

A 4.4 per cent GDP growth will bring 2002-03 on a par with 2000-01, when the economy recorded the same growth. The lowest growth since the Nineties was in 1991-92 when GDP at factor cost grew 1.3 per cent. In the Nineties, growth slipped below 5 per cent on three occasions.

Also, with this year