Grim outlook for pulses, oilseeds

The government's efforts to keep food inflation under check could soon receive a jolt. The production of pulses and oilseeds is projected to drop by 5.2 per cent and six per cent, respectively, this year. A significant quantity of the two is imported every year.

However, there are no such worries on the foodgrain front, as production for the 2011-12 crop marketing year, which started in July, is estimated to touch an all-time high of 250.42 million tonnes, primarily owing to record wheat and rice output, according to the second advanced estimate of crop production for 2011-12.

The estimates released on Friday showed the production of wheat this year would stand at around 88.3 million tonnes, around 1.6 per cent more than last year's production. The output of rice is expected to be around 103 million tonnes, up a staggering seven per cent compared to last year.

During the week ended January 14, food articles continued to witness deflation for the fourth week in a row. The fall in prices accelerated to 1.03 per cent for the week, compared with 0.42 per cent in the previous one, mainly due to a drop in the prices of fruits and vegetables.

The estimates showed cotton production would stand at a record 34.1 million bales (1 bale=170 kg), up 3.3 per cent compared to last year. T production of sugarcane is estimated at 347.9 million tonnes this year, a rise of around 1.6 per cent compared to last year.

However, the outlook on pulses and oilseeds is a concern. Officials said production of both had suffered, owing to uneven rains in the kharif season and low pre-winter rains in the northern regions.

"The near absence of winter rains hit the sowing of rabi pulses and mustard, which is primarily grown in this season," a senior official said. He added this year, the country would again have to rely on imports to augment supplies. In 2010-2011, India's pulses import had declined to around 1.5 million tonnes from an average of 2.5-3 million tones, as domestic production reached an all-time high of 18 million tonnes.

Sharing his views, Ramesh Chand, director, National Centre For Agriculture Economics and Policy Research, said though some improvement in winter rains was seen around mid-January, it wouldn't have much impact on the shortfall in oilseeds and pulses this year. "There are very little chances of recouping the loss in pulses and oilseeds. I believe the data released on Friday must have factored in positives like the revival of rains," he told Business Standard.

Almost half of the pulses India imports annually comprises yellow peas, while other pulses like tur, urad, moong and chana account for the remaining 50 per cent. The pulses are imported from Canada, Myanmar, Australia and a few African countries.