High food security risk in India: global agency

London-based Maplecroft, the risk advisory business, has rated India with “high risk” in its newly developed food security index, ranking 25 out of 148 listed countries due to unsustainable water use and an expanding population.

Maplecroft found that the US has the most stable food supplies according to the Food Security Risk Index. Angola is at extreme risk, along with Haiti, Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe.

The rating assumes significance as the availability of almost all foodgrains, pulses and sugar has become scarce despite adequate domestic production resulting into abnormal price increase across all sectors. Over 65 per cent increase in “kitchen expenses” has threatened the magnitude of consumption of absolutely necessary commodities for normal health.

The Food Security Risk Index (FSRI) measures the availability, stability and access to basic food stocks, as well as the impacts on nutrition and health that result from food insecurity. To provide an accurate picture of global food security, Maplecroft has rated each country based on performance across 19 key indicators. These include:  imports, exports and production of cereals, food production per capita, rate of undernourishment per capita, water resources, GDP per capita and global aid shipments.

The US performs particularly well due to its massive ratio of cereal exports compared to imports and, despite the economic downturn, its continuing buying power. The next best placed countries are France (147), Canada (146) and Germany (145).

India may be one of the world’s key emerging economies, but it is finding itself under increasing pressure from food security issues. As much as two-thirds of the country’s 1.1 billion inhabitants rely on farming as their main source of income, but 21 per cent less land is under cultivation in August 2009, than during the same period in August 2008. This is due to a reduction in the availability of national water resources for agricultural purposes, deforestation and an uneven monsoon in July 2009, which caused widespread flooding and droughts. The resulting reduction in crop yields is likely to inject inflationary pressure into the economy, placing further strain on large sections of the populace.

China (107) is better placed to cope with the risk of food security than India. Food self sufficiency and avoiding shocks in supply and price have long been national security and stability targets and it has been buying large tranches of arable land in Africa to secure future sources.

Food security became a critical issue for many countries after the rises in food commodity prices in 2007 and 2008 sparked rioting in more than 30 countries. The World Bank estimates that about 100 million people are facing deeper poverty due to higher food prices.

Food security is a complex issue affected by a range of factors, including agricultural development and capacity, international trade flows, poverty and income distribution, foreign aid, as well as macroeconomic policies and government programmes on nutrition and food fortification. Added to these are the impacts of global population growth and climate change. Both the public and private sectors will increasingly be called upon to mitigate risk from food security, in order to maintain a stable societal context conducive to development.