India can export 2-3 mn tonnes of rice for next 10 years: Gurdev Khush

Q&A with internationally renowned agronomy and plant genetics scientist

Over the years, world rice production has seen an exponential rise of almost 16% between 2000 and 2010 mainly due to improved farm techniques and better seeds. However, going forward many experts believe that the trend might plateau, pushing up prices of this key commodity.

In an exclusive interview with Business Standard, Dr Gurdev Khush, internationally renowned agronomy and plant genetics scientist and a recipient of World Food Prize in 1996 said that world rice acreage and production won't decline in the next few years, but in the long run it will difficult to sustain the production increase as acreage is shrinking and water tables are getting depleted. Excerpts:

What kind of challenges the  world rice production face in view of shrinking land mass, depleting water tables and other climatic changes?
Shrinking area planted to rice, depleting water resources in the north and changing climate pose serious challenges to rice production these will certainly affect rice production in the long run. To face these challenges rice scientists must develop rice varieties with higher yield potential and more resilient to climate changes such as resistant to flooding, drought and new diseases and insects which may evolve under changing climate.

Do you see any possibility of the growth in world rice production stopping sometime soon or the growth trajectory will continue. If yes for what reasons?
I do not believe growth in world rice production will  stop soon. Growth will continue as a result of application of new breakthroughs in rice science and management practices and benign government policies. Area planted to rice will continue to increase for example in Africa and Latin America as well as there will be some increase in Asia.

India in the last few years has emerged as a major player in the world rice market after it lifted the ban on exports. Do you think this trend will continue for some more years, or India's domestic demand will wipe off the exportable surplus?
I firmly believe India will continue to export rice for at least next ten years. Growth in India's domestic demand will not increase due to substitution of high value foods resulting from increases in the numbers of middle class. In 10 to 15 years the demand will actually start to decline as the population starts to stabilise.

How much rice do you think India will continue to export in the next few years on an annual basis?
I believe India will continue to export rice at the level of 2-3 million tons a year for several years.

How have the various trade barriers like export bans imposed by rice producers affected the world rice market?
Trade barriers and export bans have led to more than doubling of price of rice on the international market. This has also affected the price of rice in domestic markets. Poor rice consumers have been affected adversely in many countries.

India's annual rice production constantly faces challenges from flooding or water stress. How do you think the government should tackle these? 
Government must support the research and extension programme to develop technologies for mitigating the adverse effects of flooding and drought. It should invest in development work to reduce the losses caused by these stresses. Land management such as bunds and channelising of rivers to reduce flooding and development of irrigation where possible to reduce the likelihood of drought.

Off late, there has been lot of stress on shifting India's rice cultivation from north to east through programmes like Bringing Green Revolution in East India (BGREI). Do you think it is the right strategy or something else should have been done and why?
It is right strategy because there is lot of scope for increasing rice production in Eastern UP, Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal and Assam. Potential of rice production in these states has not been exploited to the full extent. There is considerable scope for increasing area under irrigation because of underground water aquifers as well as increasing areas in the rabi season.

The "Golden Rice' programme has faced numerous questions and criticism for its impact in reducing Vitamin A deficiency. What do you think are the benefits that this variety of rice offers and when can we expect it to the reach the mass market?
Golden rice will help alleviate Vitamin A deficiency particularly among poor people who derive most of their calories from rice as rice lacks Vitamin A. Most of the criticism of golden rice is unjustified and comes from those who are opposed to the use of genetic engineering (GMO) technology in crop improvement. Golden rice has undergone all the regulatory tests such bio-availability, food and environmental safety etc. Its yield is same as non GM rice. How soon it will reach the consumers will depend upon the public perception about the use of GMOs. The opposition and scare mongering tactics of well endowed NGOs will be biggest hurdles in the way of release of golden rice for mass production and consumption.