India can sustain 8-9% growth: PM

Notwithstanding the uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said India should be able to sustain a rate of 8 to 9 per cent GDP growth.

He said he was confident that India would come out of this crisis stronger but the road ahead was also going to be difficult to traverse.

“It is not going to be easy but I am convinced that India’s savings rate, which is as high as 35 per cent with a normal capital output ratio of 4:1, we should be able to sustain, with a little effort, a growth rate of about 8 to 9 per cent, notwithstanding the difficulties on the international front,” Singh told reporters accompanying him on his way back home from a four-day visit to Italy.

Against the backdrop of the world attempting a recovery from the recession caused by the financial crisis in the heart of the developed world, he said he had had discussions with the leaders of G-8 and G-5, Egypt and African countries.

“After our discussions, it is my sense that while there are some signs of recovery, the world economy is still a long way from recovering the earlier growth momentum and there must be questions whether that will soon be possible for the global economy,” he said.

The prime minister said he was returning home convinced that India must continue to strengthen steps at home to regain the 8 to 10 per cent growth path. He said international environment would not be as supportive as before for some time. “I am, however, confident that our domestic economic strengths will enable us to return to our earlier path of rapid and inclusive growth,” he added.

In his statement in the G-8,G-5 summit, he had said all available indicators for 2009 point to a deceleration in the US economy in the European Union economies and, therefore, one can say that the global environment for the development of the countries of the third world had undergone a sharp deterioration.

Singh noted that India’s exports had suffered, capital flows from abroad had declined and international banks’ lending to developing countries had fallen.

“Therefore the challenge before us is to sustain and revive the growth momentum, which we have built up in the last five years, notwithstanding the deterioration in the international environment for development,” he said.

Answering a question, Singh said he had always viewed his government’s role was to get rid of chronic poverty, ignorance and disease which still afflicted millions of people.

“We have made some important gains in the last five years. We managed to impart to our country a stronger growth momentum. We strengthened the forces which make for inclusive social and economic development,” he said.

He mentioned that the government had put in place social safety nets which soften the harsh edges of extreme poverty substantially.