India's GDP likely to have grown by 4.5% during Q2: D&B

It expects the rupee to average at around 62.60-62.80 per dollar during November 2013

Gross domestic product (GDP )  in India is expected to have grown by 4.5 per cent during the second quarter of this financial year. It is likely to remain weak during the rest of the year, says a Dun & Bradstreet report.

Growth in the April-June quarter was 4.4 per cent. Growth hit a decadal low of five per cent in 2012-13, on account of poor performance in the farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.

“With almost three quarters of FY14 behind us, inflationary pressures remain unabated, The manufacturing sector fails to revive, fiscal deficit continues to rise and the domestic private sector consumption continues to weaken,” Dun and Bradstreet India Senior Economist Arun Singh said.

Currently, the only support has been from easing of the current account deficit, due to revival in export demand and the fast-tracking of tardy infrastructure projects by the Cabinet Committee on Investment. However, the trickle-down effects of the execution of these huge projects can be realised only after a few more months, Singh added.

Though the Reserve Bank of India and the government have taken a number of measures to support growth, “given that the election is around the corner, it remains to be seen how soon these measures help improve the business confidence,” he said.

On the rupee, the report said it is likely to remain under pressure, primarily owing to the speculation regarding the US Federal Reserve’s scaling back its stimulus, besides oil-related dollar demand.”

D&B  expects the rupee to average at 62.60-62.80 a dollar during November. The rupee is currently at 62.80 a dollar.