Kharif foodgrain output likely to touch record 150.5 mt this year

India's foodgrain production is likely to touch a record 150.50 million tonnes in the ongoing kharif season (2021-22) but what should be of greater concern is that the output of oilseeds is projected to be 23.39 million tonnes, 2.66 per cent less than last year.

In oilseeds, groundnut production is estimated at 8.25 million tonnes, which is 3.50 per cent less than last year, while soybean output is estimated at 12.72 million tonnes, a decline of 1.08 per cent. The production numbers, according to the first advance estimate of the 2021-22 (July-June) crop year, were released on Tuesday. 

Prices of edible oils, along with those of pulses, have been on fire for the past few months owing to a spike in global markets and low supplies.  This has affected household budgets and all eyes are on the kharif harvest to provide succour.

Low domestic production means that much more reliance on costly imports because local output meets about 40 per cent of domestic demand.

In pulses, the situation looks relatively good because the production of kharif pulses is expected to be 9.45 million tonnes, which is 8.74 per cent more than last year.

In this, tur, which is among the biggest varieties of pulses grown during the kharif season, is projected at 4.43 million tonnes, which is 3.50 per cent more than last year. However, experts said much should not be read into the initial production estimates of pulses and oilseeds because final harvest figures might go down in the subsequent estimates when the crop starts hitting the market in full steam.

In 2020-21, pulses production went down by 6.65 per cent between the first and fourth advanced estimates. “In oilseeds, it was expected that production will be less than last year because the area under cultivation has been on the lower side, but the good news is pulses output is expected to be better.

As far as inflation is concerned, in the case of edible oils, there might be a slight dip as global markets have softened a bit, but after October, prices will again start rising,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings. He said in the case of pulses if final output was good, prices might moderate.

Meanwhile, in other crops, the output of coarse cereals is likely to fall to 34 million tonnes in 2021-22 from 36.46 million tonnes in 2020-21, according to the first advance estimate. Among coarse cereals, maize output is estimated to fall to 21.24 million tonnes in the 2021-22 kharif season from 21.44 million tonnes in the previous year.

Cotton production is also likely to be a record at 36.22 million bales (of 170 kg each) as compared with 35.38 million bales in the previous year. Jute and mesta production is pegged slightly higher at 9.61 million bales (of 180 kg each) this year as against 9.55 million bales last year.