Kharif sowing drops further, raises output concerns in oilseeds, pulses

Farmers might shift from soy, cotton and maize if rainfall doesn't improve sufficiently, analysts say

Sowing of kharif crops continued to be lower than last year despite a revival in monsoon in some parts of the country, raising concerns over final crop output as any extraordinary delay in sowing will impact yields.

A drop in kharif output particularly for oilseeds and pulses could have an adverse impact on their already high prices, further pushing up inflationary impact on the economy.

Till last week (July 09), sowing of kharif crops was 10.45 per cent lower than last year, and worsened during the week ending July 16 to 11.6 percent less.

More importantly, the area covered under kharif crops dropped below the normal acreage (which is the average acreage of the last five years).

Sowing was down almost 4 per cent as compared to the normal area till July 16, 2021.

Among major crops, acreage of urad is almost 23.30 per cent less than last year, while that of moong is around 21 per cent less than last year, bajra acreage is 39.85 per cent less than last year, while groundnut area is 18.16 per cent less than last year till July 16 and soybean area is 11.92 per cent less than last year till July 16.

Cotton has been planted in 12.94 per cent less area till July 16 this year as compared to the same period last year. (see chart)

“There are concerns of moisture stress in some areas, mostly in MP and Rajasthan, where early sowing was done. If it does not rain soon, it may cause yield loss,” the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said.

In Madhya Pradesh, which is the country’s largest soybean growing state, SOPA added that soybean area is expected to reduce by 10 per cent as compared to 2020, as farmers have switched to other crops such as black gram, maize and moong.

Crisil Research in a report said that there could be a shift in soybean, cotton and maize acreages across the rainfall deficit states if the monsoon fails to revive as forecast.

“Hence the monsoon trajectory needs to be monitored closely to understand its impact on kharif crops in the coming months,” Crisil added.

It said rainfall has been 32 per cent deficit compared to the long period average during June 23 and July 12, with northwest region recording the highest deficit of 55 per cent.

“Monsoon was 58 per cent deficient between June 23 and July 12 over Rajasthan and if not recovered within the next 10 days, may cause a shift from soybean to maize in key deficit areas. Rainfall shortfall in Central India was 39 per cent during this period with Gujarat accounting for 67 per cent of the deficit,” Crisil said in its report.