Mamata's gamble with an eye on early polls
When you are playing blind, at times you win the jackpot or you lose it all, says insider
When Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee gave the UPA a 72 hour ultimatum on Friday last, Banerjee had factored in the possibility of the UPA not conceding to her demands for a rollback on its decisions. Sources say Banerjee was aware of the gamble she was taking and stuck out her neck, as she is banking on the possibility of an early poll, a move she believes will help her to still capitalize on her thumping victory in Bengal a year ago. Post the break up from the UPA, Banerjee is looking at consolidating her position in the state; first in the upcoming Panchayat elections in the state in January 2013 and then in the Lok Sabha polls- upping her seats from the current 19.
Elaborating on the rationale behind the TMC supremo’s move to snap ties with the UPA an insider explains, “This is casino politics”. “When you are playing blind, at times you win the jackpot or you lose it all,” he added. For Banerjee when she upped the ante to such an extent as demanding a complete rollback of all decisions including FDI in multi- brand retail; if not acceded to, it was a point of no return for the TMC, he explained.
In 2001, during the NDA regime when she withdrew from the NDA, the gamble had not paid off and TMC lost the election which it fought in alliance with the Congress. But this time around, when Banerjee pulls out her ministers from the UPA on Friday and withdraws from the coalition as well, she is hoping that the gamble will pay off.
In any case, it was untenable for the TMC to agree to FDI in multi- brand retail as it has firmly opposed it in its manifesto. The fact is that the TMC had successfully opposed any move by the UPA to bring in multi- brand retail but with a new TMC cabinet minister Mukul Roy, the delicate balance gave way. Aggravating this situation was the continually worsening relations between the TMC and the UPA. “It was a relationship of suspicion. For a healthy alliance to work there needs to be mutual trust and understanding, something was blatantly absent in this relationship,” added another TMC leader.
Significantly, the Congress too is making the usual customary noises till Friday of talking to TMC ministers to “make them see the government’s point of view”, but Congress managers say that they will not b going out of their way to make Mamata comfortable.
Infact. the Bengal Congress unit has already been instructed to withdraw support and pull out ministers as soon as the Trinamool ministers quit on Friday. “It will now be battle Royale in the state from now on. The Congress and the TMC share a common turf and that is what she wants to grab,” said a TMC leader. Banerjee is first training her sight on Panchayat elections where she hopes to wrest away the Left’s bastions and then the Lok sabha polls. She wants to grab as many of the 42 MP seats in Bengal and hopes to double her present number of 19 seats and do at it before any other alternative shapes up.
Evidence of the bitter fallout between the allies is already in the open. A slanging match has started between the Congress and the TMC and is only likely to escalate in the days to come. “Dirty linen will be washed in public akin to that which follows the parting after a bitter divorce, with each side accusing each other of transgressions,” said a Congress senior leader.
Pradeep Bhattacharya West Bengal Pradesh Congress chief speaking to Business Standard said, “The TMC should remember that when they voted for us they voted for a Trinamool and the Congress combine. She will not gain in going alone, they way she is imagining it to be.”