PM likely to chair plan panel review meet next week

Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, one of the most trusted lieutenants of Singh, has prepared a full note on performance of this Commission

Barely weeks before he demits office, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is expected to chair an internal meeting of the Planning Commission, on April 30, to take a final look at the body's performance since 2004, when he took charge.

The Commission's tenure is coterminous with a PM, who is its chairman. A new panel takes charge once Singh leaves office.

Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, one of the most trusted lieutenants of Singh, has prepared a full note on the performance of this Commission, a senior official said.

The review comes at a time when the targeted growth of eight% yearly in gross domestic product (GDP) in the 12th five-year plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) is not expected to be met, with the slow growth in the first two years. Most officials now believe the annual average will be 6-6.5%.

GDP growth in the first year of the plan was 4.5%; it is officially projected at 4.9% in 2013-14. Even if it was six% in the current financial year, it would require GDP to grow over 12% in each of the the last two years to yield an average annual growth of eight% in the plan.

Beside eight% economic growth, the Commission in its 12th plan document had envisaged two other scenarios. Annual growth could slip to 6-6.5%, with insufficient policy measures and a government unable to solve the conflict between subsidies and financial stability. In the third situation, of policy logjam, it said the annual average might be only 5-5.5%.

Slow economic growth has also jeopardised investment in infrastructure and compelled the Commission to revise all its investment targets. The government's own support to the Plan has been less than satisfactory and this could force a rethink during the Mid-Term Appraisal later this year.

The Singh government had allocated Rs 14,60,041 crore as budgetary support in the first three years of the plan, not enough to meet the targeted gross budgetary support of the five-year period, of Rs 35,68,626 crore.

As against the Commission's target of attracting Rs 56 lakh crore of investments (at current prices) in the infrastructure sector during the plan, investment in 2012-13 (the first year) across all sectors was only Rs 5.3 lakh crore (at 2011-12 prices), the lowest since 2010-11.