Rabi season wheat, gram, mustard crop likely to touch a record high

India is expected to harvest a record wheat, gram and mustard crop in the ongoing rabi season. This could ease some of the food inflation concerns, particularly in pulses and oilseeds.

According to the second advance estimate of foodgrains production released on Wednesday, wheat production in the 2021-22 crop year — that started from July — is projected to be at a record 111.32 million tonnes (up 1.58 per cent from last year). 

On the other hand, mustard production is estimated at a record 11.49 million tonnes (up 12.54 per cent from last year). And, gram output is set to be at an all-time high of 13.12 million tonnes (up 10.16 per cent from last year).

Overall, foodgrains production is estimated to reach an all-time high of 316.06 million tonnes (kharif and rabi crops), which is 1.71 per cent more than last year.

Of all the crops, production of wheat, mustard and chana are of critical importance in the rabi season as their harvest is expected to hit the markets in full flow in the coming few weeks. A good rabi crop should help in easing some of the food inflation concerns in the months to come, particularly in edible oils and pulses.

Latest data showed that India’s retail inflation rate breached the upper tolerance limit of the central bank in January after a gap of seven months.

Wholesale price inflation remained in double digits for the 10th consecutive month in January. Data released by the statistics department sometime back showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation rate touched 6.01 per cent in January. It was driven by food and beverages, clothing and footwear.

An unfavourable base effect led to a sharp turnaround in vegetables from a disinflation of 3 per cent in December 2021 to a 14-month high inflation of 5.2 per cent in January 2022.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, eased to 5.82 per cent in January from 5.85 per cent in the preceding month. Data released by the industry department showed the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rate eased to 12.96 per cent in January from 13.56 per cent in the preceding month.

During January, while inflation for manufactured items decelerated to 9.42 per cent, food inflation rate accelerated to double digits at 10.33 per cent, mostly due to an unfavourable base.

Fuel inflation rate marginally eased to 32.27 per cent in January from 32.3 per cent in December.

Meanwhile, on the production front, the second advance estimate showed that total pulses production in 2021-22 is estimated to be 26.96 million tonnes. This is 5.77 per cent more than last year. Total oilseeds production (which also includes oilseeds grown during the kharif season) is projected to be 37.14 million tonnes, 3.34 per cent higher than last year.

Cotton production is estimated to be 34.06 million tonnes, which is 3.35 per cent less than last year. Sugarcane output is projected at 414.04 million tonnes, 2.13 per cent more than last year.