Rain this week was 14% below normal

However, Met dept says things could get better, while Skymet sticks to its earlier optimism; rain in the June 1-July 1 period was 13% above normal

The southwest monsoon was 14 per cent below normal during the week ended July 1, its first big weekly drop in the 2015 season.

Things could get better. India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its Thursday forecast said rainfall activity would be above normal over the northwest, central and some parts of eastern India during July 6-10. Also, that rain might remain above normal over western India during July 11-15 and over the northern plains on July 16-20, though it might remain subdued over interior parts of peninsular India for many days.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet had been saying this. It had said there would be a break in the showers but not a long one. Its chief executive, Jatin Singh, in a blogpost last Monday said the monsoon might take a breather between Thursday and Monday but thereafter there would be rain in four distinct spells. The first one on July 6-8, then July 14-17, then July 23-26 and the fourth from July 30 to August 2.

The first spell, he’d said, would be concentrated in north, central and east India.  Singh had said the winners in July would be the north, east, west and central India, while south or peninsular India could be deficit. Overall, Skymet said the rains would be normal, at 104 per cent of the long period average, with a model error of plus and minus 16 per cent. IMD has predicted eight per cent and 10 per cent deficient rainfall in July and August, respectively.

The met department data issued on Thursday showed the rain so far in the season, June 1 to July 1, was 13 per cent more than normal, with almost all the regions contributing, except east and northeast India.

Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has stuck to a low rain forecast. it says in the next 20 days, the southwest monsoon will be subdued over more parts of India and be confined to the Himalayan foothills.