Rains set in a day early

MONSOON WATCH

Last year, the south-west monsoon had arrived in Kerala on May 28, four days in advance. Announcing the onset of the monsoon today, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said further strengthening and deepening of the westerly flow of monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea and southern peninsula and persistent widespread rainfall over Kerala for the past two days indicated the advance of the south-west monsoon in the region.

It also said the conditions were favourable for further progress of the monsoon to cover the rest of Kerala and some parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the next two to three days.

Significantly, the eastern wing of the monsoon is also advancing further and is likely to cover more areas of Bay of Bengal to hit some parts of north-eastern states in the next couple of days.

The timely arrival of the monsoon augurs well for the country's agricultural sector, which has already shown signs of perceptible rebound in the past two years. In 2007-08, the agriculture and allied sectors clocked a growth of 4.5 per cent.

If IMD's forecast for this year's monsoon to be normal (the total rainfall during the season being about 99 per cent of the long period average) holds true, it will help in ensuring good sowing of the kharif crops, including rice, maize, soyabean and tur, besides others. Normal rainfall also facilitates replenishment of the reservoirs to sustain hydel-power production.

This is the fifth occasion in the past 12 years, when the monsoon has arrived on the Kerala coast before schedule. The earliest onset of the monsoon was recorded on May 22 in 1999. The maximum delay during this period was of 13 days in 2003.

Last year's monsoon had covered the entire country, after hitting Kerala on May 28, by July 4, about 11 days ahead of the normal time. Total rainfall during the season was 6 per cent above normal throughout the country, though the key north-western agricultural belt had remained rain-deficient by about 15 per cent.

The country's southern region had received 26 per cent excess rainfall during the last monsoon. Rainfall in the central and north-eastern regions was more or less normal.

However, according to weather pundits, there is no direct correlation between the onset of the monsoon over Kerala and the north-east region and its further progress towards the country's heartland. There is no link between the time of the onset and the total rainfall during the season.