Rice exports seen at 11 mt, says USDA

India's rice exports are estimated at a record 11 million tonnes in the 2012-13 marketing year ended September on bumper production and overseas demand, said the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Rice exports of India, the world's second largest rice producer, stood at 10.38 million tonnes in 2011-12 marketing year (MY) that runs from October to September. "MY 2012/13 export estimate is raised to a record 11 million tonnes based on preliminary official statistics for October 2012 to August 2013, and shipping data compiled by a private source for September 2013," USDA said in a report.

USDA has also revised upwards the rice export estimates for MY 2013-14 to 10 million tonnes from 9.3 million tonnes. However, exports are still expected to be lower than the record 11 million tonnes in previous year.

"Based on the relatively strong export demand for Indian rice, both basmati and non-basmati, and sufficient domestic supplies, the MY 2013-14 rice export estimate is raised to 10 million tonnes. While exports of basmati rice are likely to grow further, total exports are likely to be lower than last year's record sales due to relatively tight domestic supplies of non-Basmati rice and food price inflation concerns in an election year."

Quoting market sources, the department said exports of non-basmati rice have slowed down from in October 2013 due to the strengthening of the Indian rupee compared to the US dollar (current 61.5 from 65 in August/September). India had lifted the four-year ban on non-basmati exports in September 2011. It had emerged as the world's largest rice exporter in 2012 ahead of its Asian counterpart Thailand.

On production, USDA has projected an output of 105 million tonnes in 2013-14 as against 104.4 million tonnes in the previous year. The department "continues to estimate MY 2013/14 rice production at 105 million tons from 43.5 million hectare." The harvest of kharif rice is in full swing in northern states and initial harvest reports suggest good yields.

"Crop damage was reported due to Cyclone Phailin in coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, and ongoing floods due to heavy rains in some parts of Odisha, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh. With rice at the grain filling stage, crop damage is likely to be heavy in the flood-affected areas," the report said.

The department said it continues to estimate MY 2013/14 production at 105 million tonnes till an assessment of crop loss is made. "Market sources report that the crop loss due to cyclone and floods in the eastern coast could be in the range of 1-2 percent of forecast production," the report said.