Russia-India ties based on mutual need, says JNU's Anuradha M Chenoy

Even after two decades of closer ties with the US, India has not got all what it wanted, says Chenoy

Anuradha M Chenoy’s Remerging Russia is an influential and comprehensive account of a new Russia seen in the context of India and the Global South. Chenoy, former professor and chairperson at the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies of Jawaharlal Nehru University, discusses the recent India-Russia bilateral summit with Aditi Phadnis. Edited excerpts:

How do you evaluate the overall impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia?

PM Modi’s visit serves the process of multiple and continuous engagements between India and Russia. Though there are no big-bang agreements, several major projects in defence, energy, and trade have been signed and are ongoing. These are not stand-alone dialogues but part of a historical continuity of five decades that are critical for India’s international positioning.

Both Russia and India need each other at a time of transition in the international system. These relations give both much-needed leverage vis-à-vis international pressures. If the same agreements had been signed with the US, the Indian elite and media would have been doing a double somersault.

Several analysts believe that there is “drift” and stagnation in Russia-India relations. This is because India is under pressure from the US on isolating Russia, Iran and China. In other words, the US wants India as a junior partner. Since India wants closer relations with the US, and also France, it still doesn’t get how highly uneven the partnership is. To balance this, India needs Russia.

Even after two decades of closer ties with the US, India has not got all what it wanted. This is because the US balances India and Pakistan with an even hand, as it needs the latter for its Afghanistan and West Asia policies.

Perhaps India has learnt that relations with the US will never be one of equals, that it will be used to contain China and advance its interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The US needs India only as one among many agents, to push its global aspirations.

At the moment, India is engaged in a global public relations exercise because of the changes in the Kashmir policy. Russia can be useful, as it, too, does not have any great regard for human rights. It also has a policy of not intervening in the domestic affairs of allies. Russia will also expect India to support it in Ukraine, Syria and other regions.

Russia also needs India despite strategic tie-ups with China, which uses its financial power to overwhelm an economically slow Russia.

China is moving into Central Asia, especially into Tajikistan, in a big way. They have conducted military exercises, and plan the Belt and Road through here across Russia. China’s forays into the South China Sea have come dangerously close to Russian, Indian, Vietnamese, and Malaysian rigs. Russia is concerned about both the US and China here.

In the current cross-cutting international relations, one relation need not be at the cost of others. Unlike what some analysts post, it’s not an either/or situation.

Multilateralism and plurality are key. In this context Brazil, Russia, Indian, China and South Africa association (BRICS) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation are useful of coordination.

All conversations with Russia have the threat of the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) hanging over them. How do you view the progress on the Triumf S-400 missile that India is looking to purchase from Russia that the US has warned against?

For defence, India is a seller’s market. India is using that to continue its talks on the Triumf S-400 and other purchases. The US would not only like to increase its defence sales to India, but even replace Russia. But India is not and cannot be dependent on the US or any one country.

Its base is made from Russian platforms. So India has the capacity to negotiate with the US for waivers on the basis of its national security. It has managed to get some waivers, but for that India has to pay a price, that the US will extract. You are likely to see Indian defence purchases increase from the US also. But such a steep rise in military equipment will damage Indian social sector expenditure. India needs Russian support for its defence, energy, technological and many other needs. Earlier also, the US had imposed sanctions on India. So, India will have to negotiate harder for its wider interests.

Let’s come to this innovative interpretation. As you pointed out, Article 370 permits the central government to enforce other Articles of the Constitution in Jammu and Kashmir with modification or amendments. Did the framers of the Constitution ever intend that this power to modify or amend Article 370 itself?

No, because words used in Article 370 are ‘other provisions.’ So there are provisions mentioned in Article 370 which are Article 1 and 238. 238 does not exist anymore, so it is only Article 1. So they cannot use it to change Article 370 itself.

The fact that the summit was held in the industrial port town of Vladivostok itself makes a statement. How do you see the prospects of energy and trade cooperation between Russia and India?

India and the ONGC have already made huge investments in Sakhalin I and II. The Russian Far East and development of Siberia are core to its interest. India giving a line of credit to Russia is of benefit to both. This region is rich in resources and crying for investment. Investments in energy are long term, have risks but also benefits. In this, Indian industry has taken an interest, and is scoping the region. The Chinese are already there. Russia would like further cooperation with India in this region. In this context the International North South Corridor needs to be concretized at a better pace. The logistics agreement with Russia needs to be fast-tracked.

You have suggested that India and Russia should branch out and develop soft power together - education, culture etc. Has this visit achieved that objective?

There is base for developing soft power, but this should be allowed more free play and autonomy. Soft power in education and culture and people to people dialogues, cannot be under complete government or bureaucratic control. It needs government encouragement and finance but autonomy in institutions that plan this, as well as public legitimacy. Also one should not underestimate financial power. For example, no one is taking Chinese soft power seriously. So they focus on financial power. India should develop digital power with Russia. India and Russia need to open new areas of exchange from medical to climate collaboration.

What are your thoughts on the geo-political fallout of the visit: on Afghanistan-Pakistan, China and the US?

The US has done a deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan, as they start the process of withdrawal. That is in the greatest interest of Pakistan. The attempts by Russia and others to get through a power sharing agreement between the Taliban and the current regime has been rejected through the use of force by the Taliban. Pakistan and Taliban will use each other. Russia knows that. They have to save their southern rim: Caucusus, Chechnya, etc from state-sponsored illegal networks, including terror and radicalism. Even China is worried on this count. This can be a nightmare for India also. So India has to work with Russia and many others to ensure a peaceful transition.

China never loses sight of its interests and aspirations for regional hegemony. India has to use Russia to put pressure on China. Russia has no option in the current scenario, but to keep their strategic ties with China. At the same time, Russia is wary of China in their Far East, in the Pacific and in the Indian Ocean.

In sum, India needs to further diversify relations with Russia and not get hedged in with unifocal lens of national security. Human security, financial security, and creative options are needed here.