Saudi oil and gas demand to rise by 2014, says report

Saudi Arabia will account for 21.51 per cent of the Middle East oil demand by 2014, while providing a dominant 39.35 per cent of supply, according to a new report.

The latest Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report forecast published by CompaniesandMarkets.Com said on the regional oil use of 8.11 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 11.38 million b/d in 2009.

"It should average 11.66 million b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 12.68 million b/d by 2014," the report said. Regional oil production is set to rise to 27.19 million b/d by 2014 from 22.88 million b/d in 2001 and an estimated 24.83 million b/d in 2009.

Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.77 million b/d. The total had eased to an estimated 13.44 million b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 14.51 million b/d by 2014.

Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar. In terms of natural gas, the Middle East consumed an estimated 404.6 bcm in 2009, with demand of 542.1 bcm targeted for 2014, representing 34.0 per cent growth.

Estimated production of 411.9 bcm in 2009 should reach 655.4 bcm in 2014 (+59.1 per cent), which implies net exports rising to 113.0 bcm by the end of the period. In 2009, Saudi Arabia consumed an estimated 20.07 per cent of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 19.71 per cent by 2014.

It contributed an estimated 21.58 per cent to 2009 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 23.19 per cent of supply. For 2009 as a whole, the report assumed an average OPEC basket price of $60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5 per cent decline year-on-year.

For 2010, the report forecast a significant oil price recovery to $83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to $85.00 in 2011 and to $90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.

The report forecast premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average $97.00 this year, up from $70.22/bbl in 2009.