Slow demand in West will see exports fall in 2009-10: Govt

Impacted by negative growth after September, India's exports at best would expand by 6 per cent this fiscal, but will decline in 2009-10, amid contracting demand for the country's goods in the major markets of the West, Commerce Secretary G K Pillai said today.

Taking a hard knock from the recession-hit markets in the US and Europe, India's exports nosedived by 22 per cent in January, dashing hopes of a recovery riding on the arrest in decline to 1.1 per cent in December.

After showing an impressive growth rate of over 30 per cent in the first half of the current fiscal, the overseas consignments began shrinking since October. There was a tad improvement in the subsequent two months but exports contracted substantially in January.

While exports in FY 2008-09 are growing by just about 6 per cent, "it would be (an) achievement if we achieve $160 billion in 2009-2010," Pillai told reporters on the sidelines of a function of the Export Promotion Council for EoUs and SEZs here. Exports grew about 24 per cent in 2007-08.

According to government estimates, exports will grow up to $170 billion in the current fiscal. However, shipments would shrink in the next year.

"There were not many orders in the last quarter," Pillai said last night. The government had set a target of $200 billion for this fiscal on the back of $162 billion achieved in 2007-08.

"Exports are going to come down and we have to live with (the problem)," he added.

Global research and financial services major Goldman Sachs says prospects remain dim even in the next fiscal. "Going forward, we expect exports to remain sluggish in FY 2010."